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View Diary: Abbreviated Pundit Round-up: Quants vs pundits and the state of the race (142 comments)

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  •  Thar she blows! (1+ / 0-)
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    Greg Dworkin

    But with so many events affecting the polls lately are we seeing a waning bump for Romney or a rising bump for Obama at the current moment? We have a few days worth of polls but we won't know where we end up without a trend. Isn't that correct?

    It seems that we are in choppy waters at the moment where even with the variance accounted for we could see something quite different over a short amount of time. Earlier in the cycle we had a long span of time between national scale events. But this past week everything has been compressed to make it a little harder to read clear trend lines. That's all I'm saying.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 08:26:33 AM PDT

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    •  clear enough (1+ / 0-)
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      I would argue that a tied race, as shown by the aggregates/averages, is a tied race. When it's close, the individual races in OH, WI and OH matter much more.

      The polls confirm all of that.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 09:33:27 AM PDT

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