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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: In advance of last debate, a huge polling day confirms very little (214 comments)

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  •  Racial composition of national polls (6+ / 0-)

    Could be a systematic problem. We already know about Gallup, but both the ABC and CBS polls published today had Romney up among whites in the mid-teens (15 and 14 points to be precise). Given a realistic white share of the vote, which I'd place between 71-73% this year, that is simply NOT compatible with a 1 or 2 point Obama top-line lead. It should be nearer 4-6.

    Why I think this is different from the much-panned "unskewing" of Party ID: that is something that emerges after you've drawn your representative sample of the population - more people identify as D or R than the "unskewers" like. But if you are weighting to around 78-80% white participation, you are not drawing a representative sample of the electorate in the first place.

    Time will tell of course, but my suspicion is that the needle really should be 2 or 3 points more in Obama's direction given how many polling organisations seem to be committing this error. Which would mean maybe +2-3 lead at present.

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