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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: In advance of last debate, a huge polling day confirms very little (214 comments)

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  •  Obama's also up to a 6% chance (4+ / 0-)

    of winning the electoral college while losing the popular vote,  which from memory is a record. I guess this is a combination of Ohio appearing to retain a small D lean (he has O's margin at 2.0% versus 1.3% nationally) and the odds of an extremely close result having increased a lot.

    The model is currently saying that Obama still wins the electoral college with a small popular vote deficit of up to 0.6%.

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