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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: In advance of last debate, a huge polling day confirms very little (214 comments)

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  •  Senate and Governor projections (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair

    In the first group I think the Democrats will win, in the second group I doubt but I tend to be pessimistic, and in the third group I think the Republicans will win.

    VT-Sen: No data
    DE-Sen: No data
    DE-Gov: No data
    WV-Sen: +40.50%
    NY-Sen: +34.25%
    VT-Gov: +29.67%
    MN-Sen: +26.50%
    MD-Sen: +25.75%
    RI-Sen: +21.25%
    CA-Sen: +20.50%
    NJ-Sen: +19.75%
    WA-Sen: +17.00%
    MO-Gov: +16.25%
    MI-Sen: +15.50%
    ME-Sen: +14.75% (now R incumbent)
    HI-Sen: +13.75%
    WV-Gov: +13.25%
    NM-Sen: +10.50%
    FL-Sen: +10.00%
    MO-Sen: +9.25%
    OH-Sen: +7.25%
    PA-Sen: +7.00%
    MA-Sen: +6.00% (now R incumbent)
    CT-Sen: +4.00%
    WI-Sen: +3.25%
    WA-Gov: +3.00%
    VA-Sen: +2.00%
    NH-Gov: +1.00%
    MT-Sen: +0.75%
    MT-Gov: +0.75%
    NV-Sen: - 1.50% (now R incumbent)

    ND-Sen: -0.75% (now D incumbent)
    AZ-Sen: -1.00%
    IN-Sen: -2.00%

    IN-Gov: -13.25%
    NC-Gov: -14.25% (now D incumbent)
    NE-Sen: -14.75% (now D incumbent)
    TX-Sen: -19.25%
    TN-Sen: -22.50%
    ND-Gov: -38.00%
    UT-Sen: -38.50%
    UT-Gov: -59.00%
    MS-Sen: No data
    WY-Sen: No data

    For me the key race is NV-Sen, with favorable PVI and a fundraising lead.

    It is possible to win in ND, AZ and IN, if there is an Obama bounce in the last days of the campaign. We can not forget:
    - The PVI of these states.
    - The clear Republican fundraisng advantage.
    - A little disadvantage in the polls.

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