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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: In advance of last debate, a huge polling day confirms very little (214 comments)

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  •  I get that Obama won (0+ / 0-)

    But if Obama/the debate did Romney in, wouldn't this be a game changer for the poll numbers?  I don't get the feeling that it will make a big impact.  I keep reading 'Obama cleaned the floor with Romney' etc.

    I posted my sentiment upthread, I think Obama clearly won, however I was skeptical of any changes to the state of the race.  More interestingly, what will Obama add to his stump speech tomorrow from the debate to help himself in winning the post-debate?

    •  I don't think it'll result in a huge chance (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair, ArkDem14

      He did clean Romney's clock tonight, but a huge change in Obama's favor wasn't necessary anyway.  Even at Obama's lowest point post-first debate he wasn't in THAT bad of shape.  He's still more than holding his own in the states that matter like VA, FL, OH, NH, IA, NV, etc.  My guess is he gets a slight movement of the polls in his favor out of this debate, which is likely enough to move most of these states into his column.  

      •  Here's what I'm trying to say: (0+ / 0-)

        College football.  Lets say the team ranked 10th in the nation destroys team ranked 1st in the nation in a football game.  When the rankings come out next week, you expect the team ranked 10th to be higher than 10, not 10 again, and the team ranked 1st to drop down, not stay in 1st.

        If Obama beat him as bad as some people here are saying, it should dissuade independents and undecideds from Romney and move them into Obama's corner.  When pressed about it here, you said 'slight movement of the polls', which doesn't sound like big-win margin here.  Romney closed the gap from 4.1% to 0.7% margin.  We were sitting at 1.1% pre-3rd-debate on 538 now it's up to 1.3%.  What do you think the margin will push to?  

        I just feel like it's getting a little 'spin-room' here.  

        •  it's more like bean bag or tiddly-winks than FB (0+ / 0-)

          Yeah, we understand it, but a lot of voters are not FB fans.

          A lot of people have other goofy ways to decide who's up and down - it's not mathematics, but more like slot machines, just luck, or whimsical

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