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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: In advance of last debate, a huge polling day confirms very little (214 comments)

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  •  Uhh? (0+ / 0-)

    1. Why is Michigan and Pennsylvania being considered swing states?  

    2. 46/36 advantage with independents.  What was the previous split of their 'swing state' poll that shows a big pickup for Obama?

    Tonight's debate was more a win for Obama than a loss for Romney. Romney, despite losing, came out with 38% of voters now saying they're more likely to vote for him to 35% who say they're less likely to for a +3 positive spread. Obama just came out even better with 37% of voters saying they're more likely to vote for him to 31% who are less likely to for a +6 spread.
    You sold yourself out man.
    •  MI and PA are considered "swing" by (R) ONLY (0+ / 0-)

      So it is a bias - it is a bias.  You're right - they are not reliable swing States, not since they flipped to Reagan in the 80s.

      Generally, MI and PA are blue States since 1990 - - why don't people get it?  Same with NM, a newer blue state, still blue.

      Even MO is hardly a swing State any more, it's a red State now, like WV is.

      They should just have the purple States as Swing.  Those would include FL, VA, NC, NH, IA, CO, NV.  But NV might become an established blue State this year.  And every one of these Swing states seems to be purple now, moving toward blue.  If that trend continues, the Dems will have a built-in 300 EV majority for years to come.

      It's good if ppp is showing a lot of independents switching to Obama, but then why does the ppp tracker show R ahead by 2%?  It seems impossible for R to be up when O is winning the independent vote.

      •  The problem is you can't compare a (0+ / 0-)

        Swing-state poll to a national poll, so I'm curious what numbers he's using as a basis for, "Obama picked up a lot of independents tonight" because, despite reading it carefully, there is no, "Did you change you vote from uncommited/Romney to Obama tonight?"

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