Comment Preferences

• 2 to 1(6+ / 0-)

The 2 to 1 ratio is just a rough guess, but it looks to me like it should be in the right neighborhood. Unfortunately I can't estimate it more precisely, because the voter reg data is not broken down by the crosstab of party and race, like the early voter data is.

It looks like the voter registration numbers get updated every week, so we'll be able to look at the number of newly registered voters against next weekend.

I think the ability to turn out previously unregistered voters and the one stop early voting is a big (the?) reason why OFA is in NC in the first place.

• I'm having trouble understanding(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MattTX, smartdemmg

how you derived the 42K new registrants as part of on-site early voting. Can you either link directly to that data or explain your suppositions/math? This is just great news if true, so I wanted to do the math for myself.

• Explanation(11+ / 0-)

The 42K is the difference between voter registration on October 20:

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/...

and voter registration on October 13:

http://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/...

The deadline for regular voter registration deadline was 25 days before the election (October 12), so because of that we know that everyone who registered to vote in the last week registered in One-Stop early voting (on Thursday and Friday).

• Ah, I see. (4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MattTX, smartdemmg, MBishop1, celdd

So you're saying that the 42K are strictly the in-person registrants. I understand now.

Very impressive diary. Well done.

• Yeah, they are strictly(3+ / 0-)

They are strictly the people who registered and voted at the same time at OSEV, because there is no other possible way to register during that time period.

• Expanding on your numbers...(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MBishop1, Loose Fur

From July 21 to Oct. 20th, Democrat ranks in N.C. have increased by 108,300 while the GOP has seen an increase of 61,500.

I don't pretend to know how everyone of these voters will eventually choose, or whether it'll be enough to overcome any possible degradation in Obama votes from 2008, but these newly registered voters are much more likely to be true to the party they registered with (as opposed to the old Dixiecrats who never bothered to switch their party affiliation).

• BTW(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
MBishop1

Not all of these newly registered voters have voted. Also worth noting that even if these voters broke perfectly along partisan lines, Dems could expect to gain about 0.5% to their vote% total (or about a 1% bump when you include the lowered GOP percentage).

NC voters have another two weeks to register; these numbers are fluid. It's feasible Democrats gain another 20k-25k edge in registration, which could swing the overall vote percentage by 1.3% in N.C.

Recommended by:
MattTX

But while the reg deadline was oct 12, that was postmark alone. Orange County alone got 3,000 new registrations in Mondays mail that were not all on the rolls til the 17th. Your 42,000 number comparing the 13 and the 20th has no relation to number of new voters the first 3 days of early voting. Your three diaries are fantastic other that that, sorry

• Thanks for that(1+ / 0-)
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