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View Diary: In defense of PPP and other polling firms (19 comments)

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  •  No cell phones is an issue (0+ / 0-)

    But calling them a fraud is too extreme.  It may well be that PPP has a slight bias against Obama in their results on aggregate due to the cell phone issue.  They do weight to attempt to correct it, but it is plausible that a bias remains.  It would require a more sophisticated analysis than I am capable of to unwind it.  I do recall that Nate Silver showed that there was good evidence of some small bias after correcting for demographics.

    However, rather than claim they have no credibility, understand that maybe they more likely than not are going to miss a bit low on average.  All that means is that their +1 in Ohio and -1 in Iowa aren't too bad considering the what other polls show - a small, but clear Obama lead.

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