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View Diary: This Likely Voter BS. (39 comments)

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  •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
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    AnnieWest, Delilah

    I heard from someone (an OFA volunteer) that their "likely voter" screens use the dubious algorithm. But the polling outfits don't really publish their screens, so I can't verify the accuracy.

    But here's what I was told. They ask three questions:

    1. Did you vote in 2008
    2. Did you vote in 2010
    3. How "enthusiastic" are you about voting this year on a scale of 1-10. If you say 8-10, you are counted as "enthusiastic."

    To be included in the likely voter screen, a person needs to meet 2 out of these three criteria.

    That automatically excludes a good part of Obama's base:

    1. Young people who are 18-19 years old and who were ineligible to vote in 2008 or 2010.

    2. Newly naturalized citizens who registered after 2010.

    In addition, minorities and people under age 25 were less likely to have voted in 2010 (midterms), so if they give a 7 or less for enthusiasm, AND they didn't vote in the midterms, they are not considered likely voters, no matter how determined they are to vote this year.

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