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View Diary: NC Early Voting Day 4: African American Turnout Doubles White GOP Turnout Sunday (211 comments)

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  •  You all are missing the point. NC is superfluous. (0+ / 0-)

    I'm not saying NC is impossible. Obama could win it again. But if he does --it will be because he is going to surge in the polls and have a really strong night. Meaning he will take Ohio and Florida, making NC superfluous.
    There is no world in which Obama wins NC and loses Florida, much less Ohio. It's all about the electoral math.
    No one wants to see a Reagan/Mondale sweep for Obama more than I do. But I'm just trying to keep it real. Wasting resources on false hopes could cost Obama the election. Obama should concede NC and put his resources to better use elsewhere.

    •  I'll bet you $10,000. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      highacidity, bear83, LaurenMonica

      Both Florida and NC are neck and neck.

      Obama actually has a better GOTV here than in Florida and the demographics are such that he has a very, very good shot in NC.

      And I don't really understand this linking of states, that Obama has to win Florida in order to win NC.

      Knock, knock...who is there? -- One more vote for Obama.

      by NCJim on Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 10:38:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I understand what you're saying about uniform (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Senor Unoball, bear83, scamperdo, askew

      swings, and yes, NC is almost certainly not a tipping point state.  However, if he does win, he wants to win with the big mandate possible.

      As far as TV spending and campaign stops go, the key path-to-270 states like OH, IA, WI, NV, and CO are indeed getting the most attention.  NC is getting the least attention of the nine swing states in those two methods of campaigning, but OFA is not giving up entirely, and they shouldn't.  

      NC has two of the biggest keys for massive Obama turnout that other swing states don't have:  a robust in person early voting system and a large African American electorate.  You're seeing it in the numbers in this diary series.  OFA will continue to push their ground game advantage in NC.

      So while Obama will almost certainly only win NC after he's already reached 270, you might be surprised - maybe he wins it and not FL or not NH.

    •  wow, i'm glad you're not an political advisor (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      scamperdo, askew, vlajos, Babsnc

      romney is spending hand over fist to keep nc.  and at the end of the day, he may lose it.

      it's why it's called a battleground.

      romney and his ilk are blowing precious millions in this state, 3-1 last time i checked.  it's their resources that are being milked--not obama's.

      you're right, if obama brings home NC it is a cherry.  for romney, it's a necessity.  a necessity romney has to get bloodied and bruised over.

      obama isn't wasting anything.

    •  Consider this (0+ / 0-)

      Not that I'm a big conspiracy theorist, but if you think it matters who counts the votes in very close elections, you might want to reconsider your position about NC being superfluous.

      OH, VA, FL, all controlled by radical republicans - teabaggers really.  Now there is a route to 270 for the Pres w/o any NC, OH, VA or FL, but a win in any one of these four makes President Obama a two-termer.

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