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View Diary: Italy sentences scientists, officials to jail for something that is almost impossible (159 comments)

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  •  yes (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pgm 01, Ahianne

    I have this posted in my cube from a listserv I belong to (occasionally, my job required me to run models and make forecasts, not so much anymore):

    A prediction is a conditional (if, then) statement about the future.

    A forecast is a judgmental statement of what the analyst believes to be the most likely future.

    pseudoscience can kill

    by terrypinder on Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 12:03:13 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Yes! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pgm 01, antirove, terrypinder

      Long term probability of a given range of possibilities occurring over a given area: 30% likelihood of M6.5 to M7.1 EQ in the areas within 100 KM of Parkfield, CA within the next 30 years.

      That ^^ is a forecast.

      Versus: There will be a magnitude M6.7 EQ 2 km NNW of the Kester Ranch on the 23rd of December, 2017.

      That ^^ is a prediction.

      The only way to ensure a free press is to own one

      by RedDan on Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 12:30:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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