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View Diary: StephenCLE's Election Ratings - Oct 22 (28 comments)

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  •  Some of your predictions are interesting (1+ / 0-)
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    MichaelNY

    Like IN-02 for example. Do you expect this race to be this tight even when the DCCC has pulled out? That'd be political malpractice.

    •  DCCC is not infallible. (1+ / 0-)
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      MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 11:46:26 PM PDT

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    •  Bad republican candidate (1+ / 0-)
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      MichaelNY

      Jackie Walorski is a whack...one of the worst republican candidates in the country this cycle short of Steve King, Allen West, and Joe Walsh.  Mullen is virtually guaranteed to get at least 47% against her because of her crazyness.  

      And while its true the DCCC pulled out (which I think was a tremendously huge mistake), House Majority PAC has advertised here recently and doesn't appear to have pulled the plug on their efforts here.  

      •  Ah, okay (1+ / 0-)
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        MichaelNY

        Do you take into account allocation of national party resources in your predictions?

        •  In a word, yes (2+ / 0-)
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          MichaelNY, James Allen

          If party committees or 3rd party groups are advertising in certain seats relative to others, that is a sign of competitiveness and should be looked at with sincerity.  Of course, polling can often run parallel, or in some cases out of sync with party committee spending so you have to be careful when singling out which seats have truly been "triaged".  

          I actually moved CA-21 3 days ago because of republican 3rd party ad buys that suggested the race was competitive...sure enough polling out a few days later confirmed this.  A reverse example would be FL-26, which the DCCC and HMP have all but declared as won, but you have friggin St Pete polls showing Rivera still ahead.  In this latter situation I'm going with the ad spending as being right and the polling being wrong.

      •  Mistake? (0+ / 0-)

        Could it be just an informal division of labor between the DCCC and the HMP?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 05:02:42 PM PDT

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