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View Diary: StephenCLE's Election Ratings - Oct 22 (28 comments)

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  •  2-3 pts generic ballot push (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Turbonerd

    You're absolutely right, that's pretty much what the Democrats need to win the House.  The magic number that I've targeted all fall is D+4.  If we have a D+4 or better result, based on the average PVI of the battleground, I think Dems take the House.  

    As of this morning the regression is D+.7, but of the last 5 polls the democrats have led by 2, 2, and 3, and been tied in 2.  That's an aggregate of D+1.4, so I think you're starting to see some movement there, not only there but in some individual districts as we've seen some pretty positive numbers in past couple days.  

    The national trackers are looking pretty good for Obama today relative to before (except for Ras, lol), so maybe we're going to see a bit of a democratic surge coming out of the 3rd debate.  If that happens, I'll be watching the generic ballot like a hawk to see if the House is in play again, like it was back before debate #1.

    •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

      Wow. that's a lot of work!

      If you'd like, the DK4 elves can include a snapshot of those images with the link. Under the "Extended" diary box, click the "link" button and put the url there. There's a checkbox to indicate that it's an image. It puts the image directly in the diary, and turns it into a link to the original site (ie Photobucket).

      The only change you might have to make is if the image is wider than the diary layout, so adding the control
      sizes it to fit.  

      For example:
      <a href=""> <img src="" width="100%"/> </a>

      stuck that image into my comment, and sized it to fit in the skinnier comment column.

      If you don't want to make the image clickable, you can delete the just put <img src="" width="100%"/>

      like so:

      Reforms come from below. No man with four aces howls for a new deal.
      Keystone XL will raise gas prices!

      by Turbonerd on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:09:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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