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View Diary: There Was Probably No Debate Bounce - And No Convention Bounce Either (27 comments)

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  •  In September (0+ / 0-)

    there were 24 polls in Red states and 44 in Blue states. Since the debate there have been 19 polls in red states and 38 in blue states.

    Ironically, Obama projects to a national lead of 3.13 in southern states. He underperforms in the Mountain West (by about 1 point) and the Northeast (by about .75).  His numbers in the Pacific West are identical to the projected state national number.  

    There were three polls in Texas in September.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 12:32:33 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  The last Texas polls showed a shift of -7 (0+ / 0-)

      to Romney from 2008, which is consistent with a tied national race.  None of the Texas polling supports a massive shift from '08 beyond that seen in other regions or states.  For example, Michigan and Nevada have seen larger shifts.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 12:35:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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