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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Coin flip persists as debate season concludes (367 comments)

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  •  yeah it's been 57-58% Obama (0+ / 0-)

    after that until the last hour and a half when the fall started into 53-54%.

    •  When other books are steady (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      and there is no reason for an abrupt drop anywhere then it is pretty obvious someone is manipulating Intrade ( a low volume exchange). It happened in the morning. It is happening now and will likely happen again.

    •  According to the other one (2+ / 0-)
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      MBishop1, Lightsource777

      someone just bought 17K in Romney before people started wittling it down.  If it only takes $1.5K lost to change the markets by ~7% I don't see why it's out of the question for that to happen.  It does reveal a vulnerability in relying on that site however if the margins are so small.  

      That being said, Obama didn't exactly have a great day in polling either, which goes both ways.  We don't have polling from states we'd love to see (Ohio, Colorado, Virginia except for a D poll), and the national polls aside from Rasmussen and Gallup (heck, Gallup's RVs are actually pretty in line with the rest of the polling) show a marginally tied game, with almost no samples from after the debate.

      I think, as the election gets closer, the swings will naturally be bigger based on the polling we're seeing.  If either candidate sees a decided 2-3pt shift in the next few weeks, that will be borne out in Nate's model and Intrade (as well as the Princeton thing) much more violently than if they had shifted a few months back.  Momentum and points are hard to come by nowadays so late in the game, so the predictions will definitely be much more sensitive to that.

      •  Intrade (0+ / 0-)

        seems to be just entertainment to me.  It can sometimes pick up on trends, or exaggerate them.  Regardless of its past performance, though, I wouldn't read too much into its shifts.  Don't treat it like some sort of reliable, scientific tracking poll that runs 24/7.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 08:05:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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