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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Coin flip persists as debate season concludes (367 comments)

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  •  Nevada (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades, Supavash

    Republicans beat Democrats on 4th day of early voting in key swing county of Washoe: 3,954-3,782. Still very close there. Dems up by 1,200.

    Per Ralston.

    Anyone else worried about this?  

    31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 08:45:53 PM PDT

    •  It's my understanding that they have to be up... (4+ / 0-) a lot more in Washoe to be concerned...  Maybe atdnext can say more...


      by LordMike on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 08:49:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's a key county only in the sense (6+ / 0-)

      that the republicans have to take it. Basically registrations are even in Washoe. The key for the democrats is the Clark county vote. The democrats need to build up an insurmountable edge in Clark, and that's what they appear to be doing.

      The definition of INSANITY: Voting Republican over and over and over and expecting the economy to get better.

      by pollbuster on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 08:52:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's a good number. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, askew, PALiberal1

      So long as Democrats continue to out early vote Republicans in Washoe County, we should be in good shape, especially considering that only very recently (this year, I think) did Democrats finally outnumber Republicans in this traditionally Republican bastion (the mayors of the blue cities of Sparks and Reno are Republicans, but they also endorsed Harry Reid in '10).  BTW, if there's ever a place I wanna live in NV, it's in the Tahoe area where there are coniferous forests and it doesn't get too hot.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 09:22:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dems run up the score in Clark County (5+ / 0-)

      If they keep things close in Washoe, that's a winning formula.

      •  Ralston agrees. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        He says that even if it's a narrow win in Washoe either way, Obama wins.

        Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

        by KingofSpades on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 10:53:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Obama won Washoe (0+ / 0-)

        In 2008 by a significant margin. Looking at the last 2 Presidential elections the numbers in Washoe track pretty much identically with the statewide results. In 2008, Obama won it 55-43 same as he did statewide, in 2004 Bush won it 51-47, he won the state 51-48.

        I don't know a lot about Nevada county-by-county but based on that limited sample, it seems like as goes Washoe so goes the state

        •  He won the county by 25K (0+ / 0-)

          And the state by 120K.  I can see what you're saying if you consider the county a bellwether, but it doesn't appear to be a part of the state that he has to run up the margins than it is a part of the state where Republicans do.

        •  Washoe is close to even registration so it makes (0+ / 0-)

          sense that it might track close to the statewide result, but it could also be coincidental.  It isn't big enough for the margin there to be determinative unless the race is very close.  Washoe is only about 15 percent of the electorate, so you could take away Obama's advantage there and he would have still have won the state by 10.

          Clark County holds 70 percent of the state's votes. That's why it's the one to watch, and that's where all of the Dem registration advantage lies. The rest of the state is a slight net negative.

          •  I get all that (0+ / 0-)

            2008 was a blowout and I'm of the belief that 2012 won't be that close either. But if you think this is a close race, a possible toss-up, then I think the Washoe county numbers are a good bellweather.

    •  Worried about Dems beating GOP in Washoe? (0+ / 0-)

      No, no Democrat is worried about that.  Only Republicans and you are worried about that.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 11:49:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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