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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Coin flip persists as debate season concludes (367 comments)

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  •  So I'm looking at Florida early voting numbers (0+ / 0-)

    and I don't understand how people were saying that Dems closed a gap there.  Dem registration was up 7 over Republicans in 2008 and now it's down 4-5.  What were the numbers people were mentioning showing a Republican advantage of 15?  Even 2004 only shows a slight GOP lead of 3.  

    The early ballots are dead even, but a larger number of Republicans clearly requested early voting.  If this is from earlier in the year, that's nice, but the state will only be competitive if the returned ballots continue to be even, or if the Indies among those ballots break more heavily for Democrats than they do for Republicans than they did in 2008.

    •  Republicans have traditionally led absentee voting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, Supavash

      by a wide margin. The fact that it's close is a gain for Democrats.

      •  This was my belief as well (0+ / 0-)

        But looking at the GMU numbers:

        2004: 36.1% early
        40.7 Dem
        43.5 Rep

        2008: 57.3% early
        45.6 Dem
        37.3 Rep

        2012: Unknown early, but 2million fewer requested or sent than 2008
        39.4 Dem
        44.8 Rep

        •  Those numbers equal absentee plus in-person (6+ / 0-)

          In 2008, the Democrats were behind in absentees and then made up the difference and more via in-person.

          In-person voting hasn't started yet this year, so all numbers are absentee.

          •  Puts things a lot more into perspective, thanks (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            Is that to say, then, that the 2.5million they have only accounts for absentee (would make sense since there are about 2million returns so far), or does Florida require special returns for early voting too?  A McCain lead of 17pts in absentees whittling down to a 5pt lead alone would account for ~150-200k deficit that Romney would need to make up on election day or early voting, which is certainly daunting.

            •  The only thing is that in-person voting days were (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, isentrope

              reduced so to what extent they're just moving forward votes that would have happened in person we don't know. Still, it's good that Dems are doing better than normal during this phase and we'll have to see what happens during the in person voting.

        •  Does that include early voting? (0+ / 0-)

          Because I think mbishop was referring to absentees only, same with those initial numbers.

          Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

          by KingofSpades on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 10:50:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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