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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Coin flip persists as debate season concludes (367 comments)

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  •  Washoe is close to even registration so it makes (0+ / 0-)

    sense that it might track close to the statewide result, but it could also be coincidental.  It isn't big enough for the margin there to be determinative unless the race is very close.  Washoe is only about 15 percent of the electorate, so you could take away Obama's advantage there and he would have still have won the state by 10.

    Clark County holds 70 percent of the state's votes. That's why it's the one to watch, and that's where all of the Dem registration advantage lies. The rest of the state is a slight net negative.

    •  I get all that (0+ / 0-)

      2008 was a blowout and I'm of the belief that 2012 won't be that close either. But if you think this is a close race, a possible toss-up, then I think the Washoe county numbers are a good bellweather.

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