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View Diary: Why registered voter screens matter—they've been more accurate (206 comments)

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  •  Same thing Bush did in 2004 (12+ / 0-)

    They acted like they were winning in the final weeks and campaigned in California even. Worked on the media and it looks like the media is falling for it again.

      •  I thought was 2000? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell, George3, Tennessee Dave

        And to answer your other question: yes.

        When we were ahead, people at DailyKos said to fight like we were behind. When we were behind, people at DailyKos said to give up.

        by NoFortunateSon on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:16:10 PM PDT

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      •  including the handwringers on this site (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        PALiberal1, wishingwell, MRDFS

        After the first debate, I was one of the apopletic ones.  It was a disaster.  We saw what happened in the polls.  It was not good.  The lesson:  this year, debates have consequences.

        Fast forward to a month later:  Obama/Biden have won every debate since.  The Romney momentum stopped and reversed itself already.   Romney never broke through the firewall in the midwest, never got to the point where he was leading in states with more electoral votes, and we won't see any more movement towards Romney nationally or in any swing state polls.  Debates have consequences this year.  I'm not sure why so many on this site are not getting that.

        •  According to your theory (5+ / 0-)

          that "Debates have consequences this year," how to explain Obama's small to non existent bounce from his win in the second debate? Let's not even mention the VP debate, which only served to shore up bed wetter Democrats.

          I'm hoping Obama gets at least a small but needed bounce from the third debate, but not counting on it. Truth is, everything is solidifying, and if you want to add blame to that first debate, look at the amount of time between the first and second debate.  A consipracy? No.  Just bum luck.

          Look.  The idea that one debate undid and undoes the rest of the very strong Obama campaign is ludicrous.  What happened here is that Mitt Romney had a good night, and Obama had a bad night.

          One. Night. An important night, albeit, but I'm sick to POOP of Democrats AIDING the GOP and media meme that it was all lost that night.

          And yesiree, make no mistake about it, the Democrats ABSOLUTELY aided and abetted the GOP meme.  We freaked out all over the internet, and it did not go unnoticed.

          In comparison, Obama has CLEARLY won the last two debates and what's the republican's response to that? NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They may have wobbled going into the debates, but once their guy was out there with his balls on the table, they've backed him, win or lose.

          To those who thought this election was going to be a rout based on September's numbers, I ask you, why would you presume that 4 long years of a bitterly divided country was going to resolve itself with an Obama landslide?

          No.  The republicans have come home to what they've been smacking their lips over for 4 years.  And if it wasn't the first debate that did it, it would have been something else.

          So now, let us please move beyond the debates, and into strong GOTV territory.  SO MANY on this site are such stalwart soldiers to the cause, amazing wonderful Democrats, working their asses off.

          Please give Democrats what we need, which is to BELIEVE in our strength.  No matter that first debate,

          Because the republicans sure do BELIEVE, and if we can't match them on that, we are behind.

          "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

          by StellaRay on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:08:14 PM PDT

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          •  Meh. Dems don't lose faith. (0+ / 0-)

            That's your perception. Faith in country, faith in the rightness of our positions, the soundness of our arguments, the belief in each other.

            This is far more than confidence about a single President. This is a fortitude that the corrupt Romney economic system of stripping and flipping companies - many of them mom and pop organizations where thousands lost their jobs is something we will not stand for.

            People are cattle too. Luv, Mittens Romney.

            by CupofTea on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:23:13 PM PDT

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            •  If your POV is correct (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Delilah

              I will not have to hear one more post from some Democrat hiding under the bed, freaked out about Rasmussen polls, sure that if only Obama had performed in that first debate, we would never have had to face this tough fight.

              And btw, I just gotta say, your idea that Dems don't lose faith is certainly not supported by our response to that first debate.  Really, this is kind of unarguable.

              But hey, I don't need to be right, I'd rather be happy.  And it makes me happy when each and every Democrat at this point stands up and says, "fuck that first debate, we've moved on.  We're going forward, and we're doing a damn good job of it.  We WILL win."  

              Yep, that's what I want to hear.

              "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

              by StellaRay on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:32:44 PM PDT

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              •  One more post??? THAT'S you criteria? (0+ / 0-)

                Reality check, please! Extremism is rarely the truth. We are the reality based party. Romney is a financial speculator. The President is a pragmatist. We are all still in this together and that's a fact.

                People are cattle too. Luv, Mittens Romney.

                by CupofTea on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:41:57 PM PDT

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          •  Fantastic post (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            StellaRay

            Could not agree more.  Well said.

            I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

            by Delilah on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:49:24 PM PDT

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            •  Hey Delilah, (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Delilah

              how are you doing?  You're one of those I really identify with here, and wish I could meet for a cup of coffee.  One of the great benefits of the internet is that it brings people like you and me into connecting distance.  One of the let downs of the internet is that, we're still far away from each other, and unable to share a cup of coffee.

              Still, i'll take what we have.  Cheers, dear.

              "A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues." Theodore Roosevelt.

              by StellaRay on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 07:05:01 PM PDT

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              •  We are going to have online champagne (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                StellaRay

                on election night.  We are affirming a positive outcome and so it shall be. Cheers right back to you!!

                I vote Democratic because I am a woman with self-respect , who rejects bigotry of all kinds, subscribes to science, believes in universal health care, embraces unions, and endorses smart internationalist foreign policy.

                by Delilah on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 11:11:37 PM PDT

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    •  Campaigned in Illinois, too (0+ / 0-)

      that was in 2000.

      Bush came to Chicago in one of his final campaign trips.

    •  Which is why Obama needs to change the narrative (7+ / 0-)

      Go to North Carolina, maybe even Arizona (where a poll last week showed him winning!). Grab back the narrative of being on offense.

    •  That was (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CoExistNow, wishingwell, Delilah

      2000, and Bush actually lost that one :-p

      Proud supporter of actually prosecuting rape, even if it requires extradition!

      by zegota on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:31:40 PM PDT

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    •  I see 2004, but we are in the position of Bush in (6+ / 0-)

      that...Obama is the incumbent President.  And also remember the media in the last 2 days of that campaign, they were saying they thought Bush would lose.

      I remember Tucker Carlson and Pat Buchanan saying Election Day 2oo4 ...

      Kerry is going to win, Bush is going to lose. There is just too much Bush hate out there.
      And it went so far that Karen Hughes wriites in her book that she was assigned to tell President...
      Mr. President , there is a hgh probablitiy, you will lose this election.

      And we know how that turned out.  The national polls were tied but Bush had the stronger GOTV. Ths time, we have the superior GOTV and grassroots behind us.
      Bush had the GOTV last time in a tight election.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:42:02 PM PDT

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      •  At this point in 2004... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JohnAdams999

        Bush was ahead by 2.7 pts in RCP; today Obama is behind 0.9%. Not an encouraging comparison, although I suppose it's possible that Obama could win the EC and lose the popular vote by 1%. Not sure how likely that would be though.

        •  What inflated Bush's now depresses BOs #s- Thug (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Delilah, wishingwell

          biased Ras and clones... many, many clones iwho suddenly appeared in Sept/October (most likely deliberately to affect the poll aggregates as they have).  

          What you have in both electin is within the MOE, nationally.

          But since we don't have national elections, and BO is comfortably ahead in more than enough EVs, the most likely result is pretty much what Nate sez: about 300 EV and O+2 p/v.

          But if you're really worries, go work on GOTV and stop crying here.

        •  The Repub GOTV worked the christian angle (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Steve Magruder, wishingwell

          like Billy Graham is trying to do now. They hit a lot of black churches and convinced people to vote for the Christian and not their party. I know a lot of AA's who voted for Bush because of that.  My sister and her husband for one. They were pissed and ashamed later when it came out how bad Bush was. They felt duped. But for a while they were drinking the cool-aid.

          After that I remember some of the pastors from larger congregations saying they would never do that again. Billy Graham may be successful in getting some on the fence christians, but he won't be able to get the black vote for Romney like Bush did.

          My sister and her congregation are solid Obama followers in Jacksonville, FL and are outraged by Romney's sordid character.

          He's not perfect, nobody is, but he is my President. Obama 2012.

          by emcneill on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:00:11 PM PDT

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        •  the time (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          StellaRay, wishingwell

          for concern is fucking over.

    •  A self-denying prophecy. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Prairie D, Steve Magruder

      When the "likely" voters are tied, it will bring in many of the "unlikely" voters--they will think their votes are more important than they would in a blowout.

      The furor over Friday's [10.5] job report revealed a political movement that is rooting for American failure, so obsessed with taking down Obama that good news drives its members into a blind rage. -Paul Krugman

      by Judge Moonbox on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 04:51:15 PM PDT

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    •  I seem to recall that Bush won that election (0+ / 0-)
    •  Completely different than Bush 04. (0+ / 0-)

      Except the part where the incumbent wins.

      People are cattle too. Luv, Mittens Romney.

      by CupofTea on Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 06:12:50 PM PDT

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