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View Diary: Gallup and the Making of an Outlier (47 comments)

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  •  I understand your criticism... (1+ / 0-)
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    redlum jak

    ... but want to push back on it a little.

    UnskewedPolls made up a fantasy world and applied party ID weights that aren't used by most pollsters. Even Rasmussen, from whom the party ID weight was obtained, criticized that application.

    I accept that Gallup has an accurate representation of the registered voter pool. I do have issues with the application of their likely voter model.

    Gallup is taking a snapshot of today and is meant to only reflect today - not election day. That snapshot will look different 10 days from now. But most people project today's snapshot onto election day because a "likely voter" label is a forward looking label. I wanted to provide some way for people to measure changes over time, to see if they fit historical norms.

    I made a conscious decision not to try and reweight the numbers. First, Gallup just doesn't provide enough data to do that without lots of assumptions and imputed values. But secondly, it is a critique of their model, not a fix.

    Finally, your are absolutely right about GOTV work. It is exhilerating, exhausting, and well worth the effort.

    •  I get the motivation (2+ / 0-)

      I totally understand the reason behind you taking the time to do what you are doing here.  the problems with doing so, however, are many fold.  First, you draw comparison to that sad, sad website that i wish still had a rationale for existence. Second, it's hard to apply any kind of scientific approach to the numbers of an individual poll after it's own statisticians have finished monkeying around with them.  At least, it's hard to do so and be accurate. Third, we don't need false comfort as much as we need a kick in the ass.  The Gallup poll is one organizations look at things. It has a lot of problems.  Some of them started yesterday, and again today in a bigger way to correct themselves.  Tomorrow, I would expect Gallup to be showing an even race or damn close to it.  Their polls are noisy and have also been, of late, an outlier.  When Obama takes the lead in it by Friday, everyone will be talking about his momentum going into the final push and coming out of the last debate.

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