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View Diary: Gallup and the Making of an Outlier (47 comments)

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  •  Emphasis On Precinct Voting Place In Gallup LV (4+ / 0-)

    model seems that like it could produce an anti-urban bias. Checking out Gallup's description of their likely voter model, I was struck by how much weight they give to knowing where your voting place is and whether or not you have voted their before. Here are the two question.

    2. Do you happen to know where people who live in your neighborhood go to vote?
    1 Yes, any response given
    2 No
    3 Don't know
    4 Refused

    3. Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
    1 Yes, any response given
    2 No
    3 Don't know
    4 Refused

    I see 2 problems with this emphasis.
     1. Renters move around a lot and higher percentage of them as opposed to homeowners may not know where their voting place is if they have recently moved. They could be a likely voter but penalized with these voting place questions.
     2. Voting places change from election to election. I have been living in the same place in the Los Angeles area for almost 5 years. Looked at my sample ballot and the voting place is at a school that hasn't been used for voting in the 5 years I have been here. In those 5 years this will be the 5th different voting place I have voted at. I am guessing in non-urban area the assigned voting place are more stable.

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