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View Diary: Real Clear Politics, Horse-race Media, and Why You are Falling for a "Close Race" (112 comments)

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  •  Speaking of bluffing (7+ / 0-)

    Is there any evidence to suggest that right-wingers are messing with Intrade in order to project increased confidence in Romney? There is no logical explanation for Obamas's 5-6 point drop on in Intrade. I smell a rotten fish.

    •  I read yesterday that someone bought Romney (5+ / 0-)

      shares and it resulted in a temp surge for Romney.

      On Monday night, after the debate, Barack Obama was leading Romney on Intrade by around 60 percent to 40 percent. But at around 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, Romney surged to 48 percent....

      ...As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 buying up Romney shares and pushing the Republican candidate’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent....

      http://www.democraticunderground.com/...

      Seems all they really know how to do is manipulate and cheat.

      •  Seems a poor way to guage public opinion anyway (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wishingwell

        precisely because it's based on shares.  

        Republicans...What a nice club...of liars, cheaters, adulterers, exaggerators, hypocrites and ignoramuses. Der Spiegel -6.62, -6.92

        by CanyonWren on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:01:43 AM PDT

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        •  I messed around with it in 08 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CanyonWren

          during the actual election it was very close. Somehow I was a bit quicker to realize to look at how Bush carried counties so made some decent money but everyone else caught up very fast. (As in I remember buying Montana shares when i saw polling coming out to put Obama ahead, it surged but then was corrected and I sold as it corrected when ppl realized it was just that areas that when for Kerry were coming in, so on election day they are pretty close).

          •  So, did you break even at least? (0+ / 0-)

            I don't know, it reminds me of the futures Rumsfeld, etc. set up for "future terrorist attacks"...just seems like a perversion of the democratic process in order to make a buck...you know, the essence of American politics, LOLs.

            Republicans...What a nice club...of liars, cheaters, adulterers, exaggerators, hypocrites and ignoramuses. Der Spiegel -6.62, -6.92

            by CanyonWren on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:37:50 AM PDT

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