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View Diary: why we all should chill, courtesy of Politico (204 comments)

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  •  I don't know how he calculates (5+ / 0-)

    from my perspective

    at an absolutely worst-case situation, Obama winning popular vote narrowly, I still see 281 EVs

    OH
    NV
    NH
    IA

    at a 2-3% national margin, which I actually consider Obama's floor, I think you his 303 by adding CO and VA.

    I note that as of last night the most likely numbers of electoral votes by % of the 25001 simulations each night done at 538 were as follows:

    332    14+%
    303     9+%
    347     7+%  (almost 8)

    these three possibilities add up to almost 1/3  

    btw - u get to 347 by sweeping all battlegrounds

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:41:24 AM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  What, how Sam Wang calculates+extension (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb92

      What:

      a meta-analysis directed at the question of who would win the Electoral College in an election held today. Meta-analysis provides more objectivity and precision than looking at one or a few polls, and in the case of election prediction gives a highly accurate current snapshot. In 2004, the median decided-voter calculation captured the exact final outcome. In 2008, the final-week decided-voter calculation was within 1 electora
      l vote.
      How:
      Calculations are based on recent available state polls, which are used to estimate the probability of a Democratic/Republican win, state by state. These are then used to calculate the probability distribution of electoral votes corresponding to all 2.3 quadrillion possible combinations.
      Where:
      SamWang How it's doneand you can have an update extension that changes five times a day on chrome toolbars:

      PEC for chrome

      "Are you bluish? You don't look bluish," attributed to poet Roger Joseph McGough, for the Beatles' Yellow Submarine (1968).

      by BlueStateRedhead on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 09:46:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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