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View Diary: why we all should chill, courtesy of Politico (204 comments)

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  •  overall I expect minor parties to be </= 3% (1+ / 0-)
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    annan

    and would not be surprised if that drops to </= 2%  Assume 3%.  Assume a 3 point margin for Obama.  He would win 50-47  and I think 47% is pretty much Romney's ceiling, and when all is said and done it could be as low as 46% with minor candidates drawing only 2%.  That would mean Obama winning 52-46, 1 point less than his margin last time.  I view this as the outer range of performance.  At this level I think O is locked for 332, and then my gut from last week starts coming into play - adding NC, maybe AZ and maybe even 2nd CD of NE.  Of greater importance, at a national margin of 5-6% the House might just be in play.

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 08:22:30 AM PDT

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