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View Diary: NC Early Voting Day 6: 135K Minority/Dem '08 Non-Early-Voters Have Voted… Vs 78K White GOPers (96 comments)

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  •  I don't at all claim (2+ / 0-)
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    susanWAstate, mconvente

    That my methodology is perfect. You rightly point out some ways that it could be improved (if I had more time to spend on it and if I had more data).

    I do think, however, that it is better than anything else you can get from anywhere else (that I know of), unless you are David Axelrod or someone like that.

    To address what seem to be your main points:

    1) Exit polls are not accurate - I totally agree.

    2) Race/Ethnicity - We do actually know the race/ethnicity of voters, because you have to report your race when registering to vote in NC. So this data is accurate.

    3) This doesn't take into account any possible swing in voter preferences - Totally true, and I said that up front. The point of this is to compare whether voter turnout is more favorable or unfavorable than in 2008 in a more rigorous way than simply looking at party registration or race in isolation. Note I say "more rigorous" - not "ideal." For example, this methodology could be better if we took into account age, gender, and the %s that each precinct voted for Obama in 2008. But I didn't do that because it would have been too complicated, would have taken me more time than I had to spend on this, and I don't really have the data to do that. Basically what we're doing is combining race and party registration in one measure and weighting them based on their historical voting patterns. That certainly doesn't tell you everything, but it is more informative than knowing that e.g. ~30% of voters are African American.

    •  OK, at least you have some hard data (1+ / 0-)
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      That was my main point with my comments above.  You need to have hard data somewhere.  I guess collecting ethnicity data is a North Carolina thing.  At minimum, it certainly isn't a Pennsylvania thing (which is where I'm currently registered to vote).

      This is probably a lot of work, so maybe just do it for the final early voting total, but perhaps you can run some confidence interval-like scenarios accounting for the actual ethnicity percentages, and then a best case and worst case scenarios (i.e. - say Hispanic voters were 12%, so compute 9% and 15% for worst and best, and see what that does to the estimated total for Obama vs. Romney).  That way we can see what a good guess of the worst-case scenario is and how much of a cushion Obama will have.

      #RomneyRyan2012: Because one white, rich, male Republican asshole is never enough.

      by mconvente on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 08:11:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It is different for PA (0+ / 0-)

        Yeah, you're right. It is an NC thing. It is like this for NC and a few other states. Because of the Voting Rights Act, they collect race data from everyone who registers to vote, whereas in PA you just register with a Party (or independent).

        There's no confidence interval needed, however. The data was provided individually on a voter by voter basis, by the voters themselves. So generally it should be about as accurate as census data.

        You're right though more broadly, and especially towards the end I'll run through scenarios. The biggest issue concerns with uncertainty about how White Dems and White Unaffiliateds are voting. Are they are swinging substantially towards Romney or not?

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