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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Muddled messages about the post-debate electoral state of play (330 comments)

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  •  It wouldn't be a bounce if it stuck (7+ / 0-)

    Romney consolidated the low hanging fruit by getting Republicans enthused again and simultaneously having Democrats line up to jump off of bridges with his first debate performance.  This is realistic.  Extreme enthusiasm with Democrats post-convention stuck for a bit longer than people thought, but it wasn't necessarily permanent, and post-convention depression with Republicans wasn't going to be permanent either.

    Romney then began climbing largely at the behest of the tracking polls and various robo-callers, while the live caller pollsters seem to show a more stable race either being tied or 1-2 pts in either candidate's direction.  

    I think Romney believed a middling to decent performance on the third debate would be the linchpin in this strategy, driving an undeniable momentum story that would carry him to the election (this wasn't unbelievable and hardly impractical).  Instead, it looked like Obama was debating a tomato at the end of Monday night, and the Mourdock story (which has yet to unfold fully in the polls) is going to be a sharp jab to him just as he begins to recover with women in the battlegrounds, coming off of double digit losses in previous polling.  

    To sum, I think that, despite your comment history, that you are accurate to say that it is a race down to the wire, but that the margins are wide.  An Obama win in Florida is, quite honestly, still not out of the question given how OFA is cranking out early votes.  North Carolina is also doing well, and Colorado early voting seems to have shifted, at most, 3-5pts towards Republicans (Obama won by 9 in '08, so NBD.  Nearly 80% of Colorado voters voted early in '08 too with a narrow Dem win, so Obama clearly carried Indies hard or the election day vote).  

    •  And AZ is close now (1+ / 0-)
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      How sweet would THAT be? Troglodyte central goes blue?

      Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

      by TerryDarc on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 08:34:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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