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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Muddled messages about the post-debate electoral state of play (330 comments)

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  •  It Does, But Only When You Consider Three Things: (7+ / 0-)

    1. The job approval is among ALL adults, whereas the head-to-heads are of likely voters (and a separate tally of registered voters).

    2. The job approval is only a three-day sample, whereas the head-to-heads are a seven-day sample.

    3. Job approvals do not necessarily translate to votes. One thing we have seen this month, from early in the month till now. A slight erosion in Obama's national support (from a lead of around 4-5 points to the current national toss-up), but, at the same time, increased job approval numbers for the president. How is that possible? It's actually simple, if a bit disturbing. Romney's favorabilities have also gone up, and at a generally faster clip than Obama's job approval.

    "Every one is king when there's no one left to pawn" (BRMC)
    Contributing Editor, Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections

    by Steve Singiser on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 07:31:14 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Momentum (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, TheKF1

      Since Gallup does have a 7 day rolling average, I was using the job approval number to show the momentum of the race right now.  Romney's favorability numbers were bound to increase as the race moves towards the end.

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