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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Muddled messages about the post-debate electoral state of play (330 comments)

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  •  Pharos is spectacularly off (0+ / 0-)

    Nebraska is one of the most Republican states in the Union and McCain won it 57-42 in the most democratic of years. The  numbers of Romney 51-41 are bogus on many levels. Montana 47-41 is probably also way off.

    •  FWIW, Here is Steve's reply of Pharos to David Nir (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Supavash, jlgarsh, IM, Sylv


      To answer the questions you raise in order:

      1)  Cost is SIGNIFICANTLY lower than that.  Say what you want, we use low cost call centers, cost of polls is nowhere near 100k.

      2)  We have been doing prior polls, and releasing to media.  Doesn't get any attention, not one freaking play until this most recent ND Senate poll.

      3)  Odd numbers in N (I can explain that if you like).  Report to hundredth because that's what we came up with.  

      4)  I live in ND.  I don't live in IND.  The two races are about as competitive.

      5)  Right.  Thanks for the correction.

      6)  Website is place holder while we complete the more thorough one.  We're primarily in commercial market research, surveys for hospitals, clinics, etc.

      7)  I worked at Gallup for a number of years in the 1990s (as you say, right now, not exactly an endorsement).  Michael, my partner, has worked in local politics off and on since the 1980s in CA.

      On to the substantive points.

      1)  I'm skeptical of the NE Senate numbers too.  I suspect the poll is an outlier.  On the other hand, there hasn't been a ton of polling done on the race.  It is certainly possible it has been tightening.  That said the respondents we got were a little tilted to Dem/Independents, and a little heavy on the 2nd CD, which means it tilts towards Kerrey.

      2)  We are relatively new to the political polling business as a business entity, and the basic response to our report releases has been essentially... "you aren't on the aggregators, you aren't serious, we won't report it."

      In short, your response seems to be the same as theirs, I haven't heard of them, they must not be real.  Honestly, I understand that.  And honestly, if you want to feel that way, you are welcome to.  The numbers are well inside the trendlines (with the exception of the NE Senate, a number that as I acknowledged, I'm skeptical of as well.)  The voter models are solid, let's compare our results with the election results on 11/6.

      If you have any questions, I would be happy to answer them for you.

      •  How often has the DSCC polled Nebraska? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jlgarsh, nycvisionary

        I wonder if any other group besides Kerrey's campaign is seeing tightening numbers. Might be worth some investment given that we still have a few weeks left, if we can afford it.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 08:05:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Pennsylvania (0+ / 0-)

      they only have Obama up 3 there.  Odd.

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