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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Muddled messages about the post-debate electoral state of play (330 comments)

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  •  I posted it twice above. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    EcosseNJ, badlands

    A DCCC poll about 10 days ago had Obama down 12 though.
    http://b.3cdn.net/...

    I don't believe Obama is down 12 here, but given the redistricting done by our "non-partisan" unicameral, I don't expect Obama to win NE-2.  

    •  And I will add this about the DCCC Poll (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      They had Lee Terry (R, and an idiot) up by 4, with Obama down by 12.  In 2008 Obama obviously won the per-gerimandered district by about 1% while  Terry beat his democratic challenger by 4%.  I have a really difficult time seeing John Ewing, an African American being within 4% (which I think he probably is) and Obama being down 12% at the same time in that DCCC poll.  

    •  I agree that Obama prob won't win NE-2, however (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      it's not because of redistricting.  The partisan breakdown of the new district is actually very little changed, and if everyone voted exactly how they did in 2008, Obama would win 49.81%-48.64%  (you can see the DKE breakdown of the new districts here: https://docs.google.com/...

      The reason, I believe, that Obama won't win here is simply because swing voters who swung D in a very D year simply won't swing our way this year.

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 10:41:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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