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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Muddled messages about the post-debate electoral state of play (330 comments)

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  •  I posted it twice above. (2+ / 0-)
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    EcosseNJ, badlands

    A DCCC poll about 10 days ago had Obama down 12 though.

    I don't believe Obama is down 12 here, but given the redistricting done by our "non-partisan" unicameral, I don't expect Obama to win NE-2.  

    •  And I will add this about the DCCC Poll (1+ / 0-)
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      They had Lee Terry (R, and an idiot) up by 4, with Obama down by 12.  In 2008 Obama obviously won the per-gerimandered district by about 1% while  Terry beat his democratic challenger by 4%.  I have a really difficult time seeing John Ewing, an African American being within 4% (which I think he probably is) and Obama being down 12% at the same time in that DCCC poll.  

    •  I agree that Obama prob won't win NE-2, however (1+ / 0-)
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      it's not because of redistricting.  The partisan breakdown of the new district is actually very little changed, and if everyone voted exactly how they did in 2008, Obama would win 49.81%-48.64%  (you can see the DKE breakdown of the new districts here:

      The reason, I believe, that Obama won't win here is simply because swing voters who swung D in a very D year simply won't swing our way this year.

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 10:41:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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