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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Muddled messages about the post-debate electoral state of play (330 comments)

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  •  You'll LIKE It! (7+ / 0-)

    290.7 ev to 247.2 and
    71% to 29% and
    Nowcast a bit better. Things are looking UP!

    GOT-friggin'Vote

    Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

    by TerryDarc on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 08:25:29 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Woot! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv

      Personally, I feel like something shifted today - toward us. The new narrative about Mourdock doesn't hurt, but that of course will take a few days to manifest itself in polling (if it actually does).

      •  Trump and Mourdock... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin, Voodoo king, IM, Sylv

        From a news-chatter perspective, Mourdock and Trump kind of trampled the Mitt-mentum narrative.  And really, that narrative is all Mitt has going for him at this point.  The polls are moving in the wrong direction for him -- not rapidly, but the trend at 538 is pretty clear.  As Nate pointed out, there may not be much of an Obama bump after the last debate, but a small bump would go a long way to putting Ohio out of reach.

        Also, its not clear where any other boosts in Romney's favor would come from at this point -- except perhaps a bad jobs report just before the election -- and Mourdock makes really clear where boosts in Obama's direction might come from.

        •  Yeah, the Mourdock story (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sylv

          is bad for him. I'd imagine it will suck up a couple days more media oxygen, and is likely to stick in voters' minds, especially women's, through election day.

          The momentum narrative is kinda laughable, as Romney has basically plateaued in his support from almost 2 weeks ago. What was a little concerning was that we seemed to have leveled off too - essentially tied with him nationally, and at a level lower than where we were. Today suggested to me that that dynamic may be changing in our favor.

          •  Mourdock will help elect some Dem candidates (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            IM, Sylv

            because it is a nationwide story, building on the Akin and Ryan anti-choice narrative.

            It may even be significant enough to put an end to any remaining mitt-mo-mentum.

            When a candidate starts talking about their momentum, it is so reminiscent of 2004's "Joe-Mentum" - a farce.

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