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View Diary: Sam Wang > Nate Silver (53 comments)

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  •  303 EVs (4+ / 0-)

    seems to be the consensus right now... that's all of the swing states going Obama except Florida & North Carolina.

    I still think we're going to pull out Florida with NC being a bit more of a long shot .. but still a good chance.

    •  303 is the median, 330 is the mode (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Firewalk, pimutant, TWOFACEMITT

      Of all possible outcomes, ranked from 0 Obama electoral votes to 538 electoral votes, half of the outcomes are 303 votes or less in both models in Sam's model, and 294.6 or less in Nate's model.  A third aggregator Drew Linzer has Obama averaging 332 Obama votes.  If we ran the election 100 times (G_d help us all!) Obama would win less than the median half the time, and more than the median half the time.

      Nate's 330 EVs, and Sam's two peaks of about 288 and 303 EVs represent the mode, the most likely single outcome.  If we ran the election 100 times, if Nate were right, we'd get 330 about 14 times, and if Sam is right, we'd get 288 orr 303 about 7% of the times each.

      The only thing not in doubt is that statistically, Romney is screwed.

      The Scout Law (trustworthy, loyal, helpful...) is a GREAT liberal manifesto.

      by DaytonMike on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 09:14:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I love your last sentence. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DaytonMike, TWOFACEMITT

        Yes.  We are winning, and Romney's electoral vote math is very very difficult.  None of that should keep us from working our butts off.

        As for your tagline, I mostly agree, but I have always struggled with reverent. :)

        Numbers are like people . . . Torture them enough and they'll tell you anything.

        by Actuary4Change on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 10:06:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Unless the polls are systematically wrong (0+ / 0-)

          which is possible.

          After all, none are random samples, and the weighting is informed guesswork rather than hard science.

          But I'm still encouraged :)

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