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View Diary: Nate Silver is too kind to Romney! (54 comments)

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  •  Both (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    highacidity

    of their projects match oddmakers.  And the models were developed separately.  

    Over time the math will add up or it won't.

    "There are four boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order." Ed Howdershelt

    by Lava20 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:23:58 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Wang has Obama at 90% (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Iseeurfuture, elwior

      Nate is the outlier of the objective statistical aggregators.

      •  asdf (3+ / 0-)

        Nate:

        OBAMA - 289  ROMNEY - 249

        Sam:

        OBAMA - 293  ROMNEY - 245

        Sorry - I see little differece.

        Sadly, everything Communism said about itself was a lie. Even more sadly,, everything Communism said about Capitalism was the truth.

        by GayIthacan on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:37:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  But Wang projects 90% odds for Obama (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          elwior

          Though they both predict the same mean, the probability they project are different. Nate 68-70% for Obama. Wang 85-90% for Obama.

          •  I believe Wang is like Nate's "Now-Cast" (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            highacidity

            That is, he is trying to predict "if the election were held today."

            Not that he and Nate will always agree on that basis, but we should compare apples-to-apples.

            Numbers are like people . . . Torture them enough and they'll tell you anything.

            by Actuary4Change on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:00:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  If (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Demi Moaned

          you use more numbers then you increase certainty.

          Promise you Wang would not place any money on a 90 percent win with the stunts and stupidity of the people we are dealing with.

          "There are four boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order." Ed Howdershelt

          by Lava20 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:41:42 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Wang has stated his belief that Obama has 90% odds (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          elwior

          He doesn't have a break-out probability like Nate does, but Wang believes, based on his model, that Obama should be seen as about a 90% favorite to win.

          The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

          by rfahey22 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:42:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i (0+ / 0-)

            Also think there is a warren effect that needs to be consider with both.

            Birthers have been working at it for four years.

            Popular vote odds seem a factor here.

            "There are four boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order." Ed Howdershelt

            by Lava20 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:57:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  When (0+ / 0-)

        money is on the line, markets and models may vary.  I believe in markets and look for the subtle trends etc. for each one.

        One must factor in stunts and the campaign itself.  You have to consider that everything will have to go according to plan the entire time for that 90 percent to happen.

        No one would risk the loss Wang projects.  You have to factor in the stupidity of people and the shenanigans they will try.

        "There are four boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order." Ed Howdershelt

        by Lava20 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 05:40:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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