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View Diary: Nate Silver is too kind to Romney! (54 comments)

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  •  Nate will update tonight and Obama will get back (1+ / 0-)
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    highacidity

    to 70%.  He looks for movement in a candidate's direction.  The more uniform the movement across all types of polling, the clearer the indication that the candidate is actually surging.  Today's polls show movement towards Obama in all but 2 polls.  The state polls released are few but definitely positive for Obama.

    If this bounce is sustained through the weekend, then you'll see Nate increase Obama's chances closer to 80%.

    He would really need to get a couple of great polls in VA, CO and FL to exceed 80%.  If Romney has to flip 2 states to get to 270 he is pretty much done.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 06:05:29 PM PDT

    •  I really don't see how polls in VA, CO and FL (0+ / 0-)

      should change the "win" probability.  Ohio and Nevada are looking incredibly good for Obama in early voting to the point where we all should be very bullish about those two states.   Romney would need next to a miracle to overcome his early vote deficits in both states.   Then you have extremely solid polling out of Wisconsin, where Romney hasn't led all year, and where Obama is at 50% or above in almost all the polls, and you are at 271 EVs.  That is not counting Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida.     Something extraordinary would have to occur to undo this, a major surge towards Romney in Wisconsin, which seems highly unlikely.  

      Frankly, I am surprised at a win probability below 70% at this point, I think the Princeton model at 90% is much closer to the real picture at this point.   I suppose Nate Silver's model does not have the means to include early voting info we have seen out of Ohio and Nevada, which make a Romney win in either state next to impossible, if the numbers we have seen are even close to accurate.  

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