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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/25 (morning edition) (404 comments)

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  •  Ohio's nightmare scenario (12+ / 0-)
    A new Ohio program intended to make voting easier could keep the presidential election in doubt until late November if the national outcome hinges on the state’s 18 electoral votes.

    Under Secretary of State Jon Husted’s initiative to send absentee ballot applications to nearly 7 million registered voters across Ohio, more than 800,000 people so far have asked for but not yet completed an absentee ballot for the Nov. 6 election.

    Anyone who does not return an absentee ballot, deciding instead to vote at the polls, will be required to cast a provisional ballot.

    That’s so officials may verify that they did not vote absentee and also show up at the polls.

    By state law, provisional ballots may not be counted until at least Nov. 17.

    http://news.cincinnati.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:08:30 AM PDT

    •  It's not going to be that close (6+ / 0-)

      I think what we'll find is that Obama wins by more votes than there are provisionals or that provisionals will need to be about 99% for Romney, neither scenario making it all that likely for the result to be in doubt.

      "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

      by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:17:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  What could possibly go wrong? (13+ / 0-)

      Do Republicans sit around and scheme about ways to screw up elections?

      NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

      by bear83 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:19:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Trying to create a provisional ballot crunch (7+ / 0-)

        on election day.

        Husted is the new Katherine Harris.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:23:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This could be like Franken/Coleman in 2008 (4+ / 0-)

          only with far bigger implications and a constitutional deadline.

          NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

          by bear83 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:26:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  C'mon (5+ / 0-)

            Really.  The article states that 200K provisional ballots were issued in 2008.  Does anyone really think that Ohio will be that close?  

            If Obama wins by 100K votes without provisions, the 200K provisionals will need to be 3:1 for Romney just to tie.

            This is a story to rile people up and think about Florida year 2000.

            "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

            by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:34:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  5.5 million votes cast in '08 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Thus every difference of 1% means a difference of 55k votes.

              It gives the networks a reason to hesitate to call Ohio for another hour or so.

              I hope; therefore, I can live.

              by tietack on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:42:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Which of course doesn't matter (0+ / 0-)

                I'd be astonished if the election night tally doesn't show Obama winning by 100K+ votes.  They're going to hold out on calling Ohio no matter what.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:49:01 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Ohio popular vote margins (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, nycyoungin, OGGoldy

              The popular vote margin in Ohio in 2004 was 118,000; in 2000 it was 165,000. In 2008 it was much larger at 262,000; still, a margin lower than 100,000 is, while not likely, hardly unimaginable.

              With a turnout of 5.6-5.7 million voters in the state (which is how many voted in 2004 and 2008), a popular vote margin of less than 1.8% would mean a difference of 100,000 votes or less.

              •  But what's the point? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Land of Enchantment

                I mean even if the margin is Obama by 50K votes, the provisionals would need to be ridiculously pro-Romney to make that up.

                Why are we even positing the idea that somehow provisionals due to un-returned absentees will somehow skew things to Romney.  It won't.  

                And every competent person will see that the likelihood of the election night winner being changed will be unlikely because within hours of polls closing we'll know how many provisionals there were in most counties.  It's not like they'll all be in GOP counties only.

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:52:38 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Husted's an asshole... (7+ / 0-)

        But, I don't see how he's to blame here.  The article didn't say that people didn't receive their ballots.  It says that people haven't returned them.  If people have neglected to return their ballots, how is that upon Husted?

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:00:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He took it upon himself to mail them (0+ / 0-)

          whether they asked for one or not.  The result:  likely increases in the number of provisional voters.  Thereby slowing down the lines at the polls.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:11:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Incorrect... (11+ / 0-)

            He sent out only the applications to everybody.  People had to fill out the request and mail them in themselves. Then they received the ballot.  It's not like everyone got a ballot in the mail.

            I don't understand the complaint here.  We like all-mail voting.  It increases turnout.  If people aren't returning the ballots they received, how is that on the SoS?

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:22:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  True, but (0+ / 0-)

              Mail-in voting, like in Oregon, is fine.  But here you also have in person voting.  Which creates the possibility of confusion and delays at the polling places.  Given everything else he's done, I don't believe that increasing that possiblity was not on Husted's mind when he mailed out the applications.

              “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

              by Paleo on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:29:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  How? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                TrueBlueDem, DCCyclone

                Sending ballot applications for absentee doesn't encourage people to fill them out and then not use them them.

                And if lines at polls are a concern, use the friggin' mail-in ballot!

                "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:34:15 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  The article documents (0+ / 0-)

                  that there was a 70,000 gap between the number of people who requested an absentee ballot and those who sent one in.  Now, many might not have voted in-person anyway.  But however many had to cast provisional votes, that number is almost sure to increase this time with more requests for absentee ballots.

                  Couple this with Husted's determined efforts to restrict the counting of provisional ballots due to voter or poll worker error, and it's not hard to put 2 and 2 together.

                  “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

                  by Paleo on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:40:05 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Except (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike

                    There hasn't been an increase in absentee ballots.  there were 1.8 million in 2008, they're at 1.4 million today.

                    The 70,000 gap in 2008 out of 1.8 million means that over 96% of absentee ballots requested were used.  That also means that absentee-requesters could have made up no mroe than 1/3 of the total of provisionals, which were 207K in 2008.

                    And that's assuming that every absetnee-requester voted at the polls and had to vote provisional.

                    The metrics don't bear out anything you're saying.  You're just way off base.  Promoting absentee ballots when 96% are returned wouldn't really seem to be a great way to juice provisional vote counts/issues.

                    The article was written by boneheads who clearly can't do math.  It's something I'd expect to see on Newsmax.

                    "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                    by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:47:50 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  There's still over a week to request an absentee (0+ / 0-)

                      ballot

                      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

                      by Paleo on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:51:15 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Understood (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        LordMike

                        That doesn't change anything I said.  There hasn't been a huge increase in absentee ballots as they're still 400K less than the 2008 total.  The way you're talking about it you'd think 4 million people requested absentee ballots and oly 106 people had returned them thus far.

                        Even if we have a higher number requested, there's simply no evidence that the 96% return rate will be different from 2008, causing an increase in provisional potential.  And even if there is, why that would be the SoS's fault is beyond me.  

                        Who requests an absentee ballot 12 days before an election and then doesn't use it?

                        "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                        by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:56:03 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

            •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              It's not his fault, then again i think fault is the wrong term anyways, because nothing out of the ordinary is happening.

              It's not like this process is any different from any other state.  If you request absentee but vote at the polls, this is how it should work.

              And there's no evidence its working any differently than it has in the past.  Mailing the application to everyone is actually pro-actively trying to engage voters...it's a good thing for democracy.

              "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

              by rdw72777 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:31:10 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Not quite... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sapelcovits, LordMike

            He mailed ballot applications universally, not ballots. You still had to fill out and return a ballot application.

    •  What could make this worse (0+ / 0-)

      Is that if Obama sits at 269 before Ohio is counted, and we still don't find out until late November. Think of all of the jockeying in Washington if that happened!

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