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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/25 (morning edition) (404 comments)

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  •  Can we start to believe in the VA route again? (0+ / 0-)

    This is as good as most of the recent polling of OH, so it at least raises the possibility of a win centred around VA rather than OH as the "big 3" state for Obama (out of FL, OH, VA). Obviously it's not as good as OH because it's fewer electoral votes, so Obama would still need one more state on top of WI and NV to go alongside it. IA and NH rise in importance in this scenario, as they are the most likely (I presume) to supply the necessary 4 remaining EVs. (Of course OH is at least as likely as either of these, but I'm assuming for the sake of analysis that something goes wrong there and Obama loses it.)

    •  Never bad to have backups (0+ / 0-)

      At this point:

      Ohio or Florida: mathematically difficult for Romney to win
      Colorado or Virginia:  small swing state sweep for Obama to win

      Any combination of at least two of these 4 states will make it ever more hard for Romney.  I suspect a victory for Obama is likely to feature winning at least two or three of these states though.

      •  Small correction (0+ / 0-)

        If Romney loses Florida it is basically mathematically impossible for him to win. He'd have to win every other swing state plus Nevada where the demographics are just too difficult to really expect him to pull that state out.

    •  I think Obama has (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      banked a ton of votes already in Ohio with early voting. Plus the economy is doing better in Ohio than the country as a whole (which is pretty remarkable if you ask me).

      NY-14, DC-AL (College), Former SSPer and incredibly distraught Mets fan.

      by nycyoungin on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 07:48:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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