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View Diary: Do Polls Drive the Narrative, or Does the Narrative Drive the Narrative (53 comments)

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  •  Consider ABC touting Romney at 50%:47% (0+ / 0-)

    in their new poll.

    That's "Likely Voters" with Lord knows what selection criteria. They publish a details doc, that says nothing useful.


    But their talking heads get to say that Romney has it in the bag.

    Over and over and over.

    -- We figure that Ras is useful. Just subtract 4% from their spread for pro-GOPer bias. Do that and they're middle of the road.

    -- Nate has the election 76%:24%.

    -- Intrade has funny stuff in the Senate races. Obama's winning the presidential easily enough.

    The GOPers know how to lie. They're setting up a narrative that vote fraud cost their "One Mighty and Strong" White Horse Prophecy candidate had it stolen from him.

    •  And what's fun is for only $14,000 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      You can manipulate the Intrade Market and get a talking point for a day.

      The GOP believe in redistribution of wealth, as long as it's from the many to the few.

      by president raygun on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 07:33:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And they underassumed LV turnout (1+ / 0-)
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      I was flabbergasted by this.  They presumed LV turnout at 79%.  Historical LV turnout would be more like in the 85% range.  A great turnout would be approaching 90%.  Take a guess who would benefit by increased turnout......

      They asked voters if  they were certain to vote, would probably vote, 50/50 chance, etc.  And excluded those people who would probably vote.

      Garbage in/garbage out.

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