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View Diary: PPP IA: O49 R47 (56 comments)

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  •  Although as an Iowan (0+ / 0-)

    I think PBO will carry Iowa, I am sceptical about the  % of total ealry voters PPP has. As of yesterday, 400,000 Iowans have voted. That is about 25% of the expected turnout.
    PPD overestimated OH a week or so back when they claimed 20% already voted when in fact maybe 10% have done so at that time. Now we do have 20% or a bit more in Ohio but not when PPD did the poll.
    That is my only concern.
    However, if we look at the 25% who have already voted, and the pace of early voting, I am quite pleased here in Iowa.

    •  not necessarily (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      As others have noted, those numbers could reflect people who just mailed an absentee ballot as well as outdated information from the state.

      We had early voting in 2008, so if there's a tendency of polls to overstate early voting or get ahead of official numbers, it undoubtedly existed in 2008 as well and the polls, particularly PPP, were quite accurate.

      Additionally, it doesn't make much difference as these respondents would have made it through PPP's LV screen even if they had just said they intend to vote. It's not like being an early voter would have prevented PPP from calling them.

    •  I wonder in Ohio how many of those ballots (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stroszek

      had been mailed in but either not received or processed yet.  So a voter could accurately say "I voted already" without there being a record of it.

      The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present

      by Inkin on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 12:01:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  exactly, not just received and processed (0+ / 0-)

        but the numbers reported to the Secretary of State and then updated on their web site. Keeping those numbers up to date is probably not the priority of the state workers.

        With that said, if people are lying about being early voters for some reason, they would still make it through PPP's LV screen, so the numbers would be the same regardless.

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