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View Diary: PPP IA: O49 R47 (56 comments)

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  •  not necessarily (1+ / 0-)
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    As others have noted, those numbers could reflect people who just mailed an absentee ballot as well as outdated information from the state.

    We had early voting in 2008, so if there's a tendency of polls to overstate early voting or get ahead of official numbers, it undoubtedly existed in 2008 as well and the polls, particularly PPP, were quite accurate.

    Additionally, it doesn't make much difference as these respondents would have made it through PPP's LV screen even if they had just said they intend to vote. It's not like being an early voter would have prevented PPP from calling them.

    •  shorter version (0+ / 0-)

      It doesn't matter. Polling tends to pick up the more outspoken partisans, but that's just the nature of polling. There's no indication that early voting reduces the accuracy of polls.

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