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View Diary: PPP North Carolina - Obama/Romney TIED! (46 comments)

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  •  asdf (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pswiderski

    There is a diary on the REC list rightnow detailing NORTH CAROLINA.

    And a deep reading of it is BADA news for Obama. While he leads ROMNEY in total votes, he is slightly BEHIND the pace he set in 2008 - while Romney is well ahead of McCains early voting pace from 2008.

    And since Obama in the end won the state by only 14,000 votes, this does NOT bode well for him this time around.

    Still - we shall see.....

    Sadly, everything Communism said about itself was a lie. Even more sadly,, everything Communism said about Capitalism was the truth.

    by GayIthacan on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 11:20:01 AM PDT

    •  You are confussing % comparisson (4+ / 0-)

      with numbers of votes. Yes Obama under performing in % and Rep over performing compared to 08 because this time they are pushing for it. Still numbers in early voting are good for Obama, I will really like to see more Hispanic votes there

      •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

        No, I'm not, In fact, I am being generous.

        Go take a look at the graphs of ACTUAL VOTES.

        Obama is UNDERPERFORMING his 2008 rates across the board.

        And Romney is WELL AHEAd of McCains 2008 pace - which means he more than likely will make up the 14,000 vote deficit fairly easily.

        'Percentage rates' do not win elections, Only actual votes do - and Romney is well ahead of McCain's 2008 pace - a pace that lost by only .3% points.

        But Hey - if Obama manages to squeak thru in North Carolina, we can all go to bed before the West Coast totals are posted. :D

        Sadly, everything Communism said about itself was a lie. Even more sadly,, everything Communism said about Capitalism was the truth.

        by GayIthacan on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 11:50:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Um, no (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          live1, howarddream, Iberian
          And Romney is WELL AHEAd of McCains 2008 pace - which means he more than likely will make up the 14,000 vote deficit fairly easily.
          This is only true if the early voters are not the same people who would have voted anyway on election day.

          Take a look at the new registration numbers: Dems vs. Republicans.

    •  Raw numbers count more than percentages (8+ / 0-)

      Please keep in mind there is no such thing as low propensity GOP voters.  GOP voters always turnout, the fact that Romney is having more of them show up early as opposed to election day does not help him.  O's ground game is premised on finding those Dem voters who normally dont vote and having them come to the polls early.  

    •  Oh fuck (7+ / 0-)

      Not you again.

      CNN has called it: Luke Skywalker vs. the Death Star is a tie!

      by GOPGO2H3LL on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 11:27:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  you need to read the actual information... (6+ / 0-)

      .....and all the other posts from those actually on the ground in NC

      O won in '08 by 14k votes

      less than 50% of registered AA voters voted

      AA registered voters already voted is up 30% from '08

      dem goal is 1.0 AA registered voters out of 1.5 million

      keeping the current 30% increase rate through election day, 914k AA will have voted, 500k more than in '08

      in todays numbers, white voters were almost evenly split and between AA and "other minorities", any chance mittens gets big numbers?

      definitely seems like the meme that dems are not enthusiastic is false at least based on all I have read about NC today.

      just a few days ago the big story was O pulled out of NC. hahahahahahahahahaha!

    •  Huffington Post Florida Tie (7+ / 0-)

      Huffington Post just took NC out of Romney's column and put it in Tossup, as well as Florida as a tossup with a 59% Certainty of Obama Lead. Iowa and Ohio are back to Lean Obama.    

      http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/...

      Obama 277
      Romney 191

    •  More Early Voting (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aviate, SteelerGrrl, emcneill, howarddream

      I live in North Carolina and I've seen more people voting early this time than '08.  I work in an office with a majority of republicans.  They voted early this time, but voted on election day in '08.  

      Hopefully, more new democratic voters will vote this time.

    •  Depends on what kind of votes we're talking about (0+ / 0-)

      Obama is behind the pace he set in 2008 in most places because McCain's turnout operation was non-existent. He's also behind because, well, as we've all noticed, the race is closer this time around.

      The real question (and I don't have the answer) is what kind of voters are showing up at the polls early. The Obama strategy has always been to focus on the marginal voters--those who don't turn out & might not turn out on Nov. 6th. These are voters added to the pile.

      My guess is that the GOP operation is turning out more voters who would have voted anyways on Nov. 6th. Their approach is to try to max out among their base. Obama's approach is to increase the overall numbers. Obama simply has more room to grow than Romney by turning out "unlikely" voters. If that's what's happening, then Romney is just shifting the composition of his total vote while Obama is increasing his. We'll find out on the night of Nov. 6th, I guess.

      I'm not familiar with NC demographics, but my guess is the state is a bit bluer than 4 years ago as well--lots of northern transplants to the triangle, etc. So to some extent lower percentages might still translate into more raw votes.

      In short, simply comparing turnout percentages to 2008 doesn't tell the whole story. It also doesn't mean Obama will win NC. But the fact that Romney does not have NC locked down (despite his attempts to con the press last week by moving one staffer out of state) 12 days from the election is a good sign for us. Obama doesn't need NC. Romney loses without it.

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