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View Diary: When 'probable' voters are getting filtered out of a likely voter screen ... (136 comments)

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  •  Also, 18-20 year olds can be filtered out. (14+ / 0-)

    In Gallup, NO 18, 19, and very few 20 year olds are included. Why? because you have to have voted in either 2008 or 2010 to be considered a likely voter and these voters are systematically filtered out.

    For example, my brother who is 19 has already voted early in Ohio and would not be counted as a likely voter by Gallup.

    22/Male/ D/Native of OH-16, Attending Graduate School in NC-04. Re-Elect Betty Sutton and David Price!

    by liberal intellectual on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 04:28:44 PM PDT

    •  Seriously? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Cassandra Waites

      Their polling methodology is that borked? Wow, that's just wrong.

      Every time Romney and Republicans mention Benghazi it proves they are the sort of opportunists that would mine for gold in a graveyard.

      by ontheleftcoast on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 04:31:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Borked?! (0+ / 0-)

        I haven't heard that word in years. Is this "borked" as in the Swedish chef "bord de bork de bork" or is this "borked" as in borkers who bork up deals between two parties?

        Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

        by TerryDarc on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 04:43:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's a euphamism for fork as in (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TerryDarc

          "Fork you! you forking forker!"

          Every time Romney and Republicans mention Benghazi it proves they are the sort of opportunists that would mine for gold in a graveyard.

          by ontheleftcoast on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 05:35:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Once upon a time... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ontheleftcoast

            ...back in the 90's when I was computer programmer contracting a BBS called brokers borkers.  They were ahead of their time, I guess.

            Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

            by TerryDarc on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 06:07:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  There's also a Bork who was nominated (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TerryDarc

          for the Supreme Court but wasn't confirmed because he was a right wing nut. He shows up on Fox once in a while.

          But the angle said to them, "Do not be Alfred. A sailor has been born to you"

          by Dbug on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 10:58:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Nothing Good Comes Of Bork (0+ / 0-)

            In summary...

            Time is an enormous, long river, and I’m standing in it, just as you’re standing in it. My elders are the tributaries, and everything they thought and every struggle they went through & everything they gave their lives to flows down to me-Utah Phillips

            by TerryDarc on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 10:33:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I would have thought (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell, Cassandra Waites

      they would ask your age and then ask if you are likely to vote. And if you say yes, continue with the poll.

      This is not right.

      Facts matter. Joe Biden

      by kpardue on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 04:34:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes all these kids voting for the first time, I (0+ / 0-)

      call them kids as I am getting old..LOL..but you know what I mean..college aged kids. I see a lot of enthusiasm with this group getting to vote for the first time. It is something they will not forget, I will never forget the first time I ever voted.

      They are screened out as they never voted before, naturally.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 04:41:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They Try To Account For Younger Voters (0+ / 0-)

      having a low score on certain questions. It seems kind of crude. Does not seem it was arrived at by precise statistical correlation analysis.

      I. Computing the Likely Voter Score for Each Respondent

      The seven questions that make up the likely voter scale are as follows (see the full wordings at the end of this page). Respondents get one point on the likely voter scale for each question to which they give the response listed in parentheses (with a maximum of 7 points possible).
       1.Thought given to election (quite a lot, some)
       2.Know where people in neighborhood go to vote (yes)
       3.Voted in election precinct before (yes)
       4.How often vote (always, nearly always)
       5.Plan to vote in 2010 election (yes)
       6.How certain to vote (absolutely certain)
       7.Voted in last midterm election (yes)

      The following adjustments are made to these raw scores:
       Respondents who are not registered to vote are assigned a score of 0.
       Respondents who do not say they plan to vote (see item 5 above) are assigned a score of 0.
      Younger respondents' scores are adjusted to account for their ineligibility to vote in some or all past elections. In other words, even though the model identifies voters on the basis of past voting history, younger voters are not penalized for not being of voting age in past election years.
       -- If aged 18-19, their scores are converted as follows: 1=2, 2=4, 3=5, 4+=7
       -- If aged 20-21, their scores are converted as follows: 1=1, 2=3, 3=4, 4=6, 5+=7

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