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View Diary: Thursday Swing State Polls Analysis: FL, VA, WI, IA, NC, NV, CO, National (81 comments)

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  •  I agree with the gist of this diary. (12+ / 0-)

    This is what steady progress looks like.  If you look at the composite polling averages per state, Obama has pushed them all in his direction in the key states.  It isn't a linear process, as today's results in VA demonstrate.  But we are seeing Obama hit 50% in more non-GOP polls than Romney. We are seeing Obama with more actual leads in non-GOP polling and leads outside the MOE than Romney in key states.

    I maintain that we will not get a fuller and clearer picture of this race until the polling that is released and/or covers the last 3 days of the month.  

    When I look at the 2 campaigns, I feel like the Obama campaign is in rhythm and has high energy and that the Romney campaign is a bit flat. Flat on the stump, and lacking a clear strategy of how to attack the swing states or get media coverage.

    By Wednesday or Thursday of next week, I think Obama will be ahead in about 2/3rds of all national releases (internet, standard polling, trackers, LV polls and RV polls) with an average national lead of about 1.5-2 points, with more legitimate (non GOP/Non-Gallup) surveys getting to the 2-3 point national range.

    We are seeing positive trend lines for Obama among key demographic groups, including self-described independents, women, and even some men.

    In the state polls, I think we will continue to see the composite averages in the key states move in Obama's direction in non-GOP polls by about 1-2 points if not more if one focuses on non-GOP polls.  I expect GOP polls to keep a number of states looking like toss-ups, but those narratives won't fit the reality on the ground.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 04:29:21 PM PDT

    •  it is a coagulating race. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cotasm, exMnLiberal

      Obama will surge another couple of days, and then it will tighten again.


      "A squid eating dough in a polyethylene bag is fast and bulbous..........got me?" - Don Van Vliet

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 04:34:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I was just going to say this... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        hotdamn

        I think we'll definitely see a bounce as the pre-debate days fall off, but it will be exactly that... a BOUNCE.  Be definition, it will settle back down in the days prior to election day.  We just need to hang on.  It's going to be a bumpy, nerve-racking ride as the end nears.

        "The political system, including elections, is carefully managed to prevent the threat of democracy."  ~Noam Chomsky

        -7.38, -6.97

        by cotasm on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 05:57:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  gawd I love this. (0+ / 0-)

        without the coagulation....
        stuff.....

    •  If it shifts to O by 2 points and remains that way (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ybruti, elwior, Berkeley Fred

      then it will be an electoral blow-out, because while it might not sound like much, that's a huge shift!

      "The political system, including elections, is carefully managed to prevent the threat of democracy."  ~Noam Chomsky

      -7.38, -6.97

      by cotasm on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 05:56:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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