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View Diary: Toward meta-meta-analysis of election polls (30 comments)

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  •  No. (3+ / 0-)

    No. The odds are 9 to 1. The way you express odds is by dividing the probability that the event will happen by the probability it won't happen, and then expressing it with an intuitive ratio. For example, the odds against a random day being Sunday are 6:1. The odds for it being Sunday are 1:6. Likewise, the odds of Obama winning are 9:1. The odds he doesn't win, 1:9.

    Brash Equilibrium /brASH ēkwəˈLIBrēəm/ Noun: a state in which the opposing forces of snark and information are balanced

    by Brash Equilibrium on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 09:03:20 PM PDT

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    •  So when a horse goes off at 50 to 1 (0+ / 0-)

      it's a dead cert, eh?

      Wanna go out to the track with me tomorrow?

      Am I right, or am I right? - The Singing Detective

      by Clem Yeobright on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 09:17:31 PM PDT

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      •  Nope. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dream It Real

        You misunderstand. That is the probability if an election were held today. Obviously there is a lot more uncertainty in the result of the November 6th election. But, as of now, it looks quite good for Obama. If you don't believe me, then never look at another election poll again, because they are worthless, too.

        Brash Equilibrium /brASH ēkwəˈLIBrēəm/ Noun: a state in which the opposing forces of snark and information are balanced

        by Brash Equilibrium on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 09:27:07 PM PDT

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    •  No, not really (0+ / 0-)

      The odds of an random day being Sunday are not 6 to 1, they are 1 in 7, or 1:6.
      The odds against a day being Sunday are not 1 to 6, they are 6 in 7, or 6:1.

      A 9 to 1 shot means you have a 1 in 10 chance of winning.
      A 1 to 9 shot means you have a 9 in 10 chance of winning.

      •  I did the first part wrong. (0+ / 0-)

        Being Sunday: 1 in 7 or 6 to 1.
        Not being Sunday: 6 in 7 or 1 to 6.
        Too much wine.

      •  No. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dream It Real

        Go back up. Read what I wrote. Realize we're saying the same thing in different format.

        The odds of an event happening are the probability of that event occurring divided by the probability of that event not occurring. If Obama has 90% probability of winning, that means he 10% probability of losing (the probability he doesn't win), this 90/10 odds, or 9/1, or 9:1, or 9 to 1.

        Here: http://en.wikipedia.org/...

        Brash Equilibrium /brASH ēkwəˈLIBrēəm/ Noun: a state in which the opposing forces of snark and information are balanced

        by Brash Equilibrium on Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 09:42:36 PM PDT

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