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View Diary: Retired NSA Analyst Proves GOP Is Stealing Elections (203 comments)

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  •  It's not that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    plan9pub

    It's that there are more plausible explanations that don't require fraud/lawbreaking as alleged.  The CT proposed doesn't answer or refute these explanations.

    Here's my explanation/alternative theory:  the basic successful Republican turnout model works on social pressuring and herd effects very shortly before and on Election Day.  It involves identifying and softening up and 'inoculating' a lot of nonpartisan/nonpolitical but conservative leaning people weeks and months in advance against Democrats and 'liberalism'.  These people honestly mostly think, and tell pollsters, that they are unlikely to vote and haven't made up their minds who to vote for until the week or weekend before Election Day.

    Basically, standard polling doesn't and can't 'see' these people until the Republican Final Push- the social pressuring and hardest sell-takes place in the last 2-3 days before the election and they consciously decide to vote and vote Republican.

    When they do show up to vote Republican in large hordes- and we saw Team Bush achieve this in 2004 in spectacular fashion- we always get two phenomena.  One is this "Republicans must have hacked the machines" CT.  The other, and mostly forgotten by Democratic activists, is the one of people who vote every election and know their precinct's usual denizens showing up to vote and wondering "OMG, who are all these idiots/people I have never seen here before and why are they voting Republican?"

    •  I don't think this is required (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Quicklund, cwech, nota bene

      Most of their analysis covers Republican primaries -- but they aren't relating their findings to poll anomalies at all.

      They're just shocked, shocked to learn that vote shares can be correlated with precinct size. But why not? Precinct size isn't randomly distributed. It's up to them to support the assumption that a zero correlation should be expected, not up to anyone else to measure -- at the precinct level! -- all the lurking variables that might influence vote shares.

      Besides, their causal account that larger precincts were hacked in order to avoid detection makes somewhere between little and no sense.

      Election protection: there's an app for that! -- and a toll-free hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 09:24:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Now this math I understand (0+ / 0-)

        So that's the evidence? R=/= 0 (n AZ) therefore The Machines Are Hacked Nationally.

        This is an interesting find in the data. But that does not prove a conspiracy, it indicates an opportunity for further study to see what dynamics might be at work here. As I am sure the pros are doing,

        •  oh, not just in AZ!! (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Quicklund, cwech
          In 2012, the trends are highly consistent with Romney making these strange vote gains in all 50 states, except Utah, and Puerto Rico. There is no selection bias on our part; it’s pretty much like that everywhere.

          p. 2

          (Bear in mind that what they mean by "vote gains" actually is based on an underlying correlation.)

          I think that's remarkably silly. The whole premise, I thought, was that the hacking was concentrated in large precincts to evade detection. Turns out, not only does the supposed hacking occur across much if not all of the observed range of votes cast, but it occurs in 49 states. It's Brilliant!

          The number of votes cast is confounded with so many other things that it isn't obvious how -- or whether -- to approach this as a research question.

          Election protection: there's an app for that! -- and a toll-free hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE
          Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

          by HudsonValleyMark on Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 12:08:07 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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