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View Diary: CNN knows their spin, and they're sticking with it (141 comments)

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  •  Statistically significant (1+ / 0-)
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    RobespierreHoo

    You're right about how the margin of error works - with a +/- 4 point MOE the actual state of the race could be anywhere from +8 to a tie.

    But the result is still statistically significant in that, given the sample size and the result, it's more likely, statistically, that Obama is ahead by some amount than it is that Mitt is ahead - over 4 to 1 more likely.  On that basis, which CNN chooses to ignore but modeling such as Nate Silver's relies upon, I don't think it's honest for CNN, or any other "news" outlet that makes similar use of the MOE to call the result a tie.

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