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View Diary: RAND Poll Sat: Obama +6.3 (23 comments)

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  •  Ohio is stubbornly blue. (10+ / 0-)

    The polling has been remarkably consistent all year.  It began with Romney operatives voicing surprise with how tough it has been, confessing internal polling showing high single digit losses.  These came out in public polls during September and then even after the media driven shift following the first debate, Obama still had a 2-3.5 point advantage at the campaign's nadir.  Small amount of percentage points, but keep in mind there are over 11,000,000 people living in the state.  With the state of the race settling on a 3-5 point win for Obama, we're talking hundreds of thousands of votes separating the two.  

    Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin seem to be in the bag.  Colorado was +2 more Democratic than the rest of the nation last time around (and even withstood the 2010 GOP wave Senate-wise) and its trajectory is to become even more Democratic relative to the nation at large.  Obama shouldn't lose Colorado unless he's losing the national popular vote by 2.5-3.5 points, which seems unlikely.  

    The unspoken story this election is how the "battlefield" is taking place almost entirely on states that George Bush won handily in 2000 and/or 2004.  Karl Rove would have seized up seeing a map where the Solid Republican foundation didn't include Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Colorado.  And then to consider Republicans not even competing in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Oregon, and New Mexico... ouch.  

    •  all I fear is voter and vote surpression (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      zestyann, shinobi9

      if Obama looses I will have trouble not believing that is why
      and we will have trouble proving it to the nation because they are being spoon fed the Romney momentum lie

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