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View Diary: OH - EXPECT one or two Romney leads in polls next week (62 comments)

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  •  I just looked up 2004 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Chitown Kev, fou, wwjjd

    Here are the OH polls (yeah I used RCP. It's what I could find.  Sorry.)  Interesting that there are a slew of not just Kerry +, but Kerry +4 and +6.  

    Zogby | 10/29-11/1 Bush +6
    FOX News | 10/30-31 Bush +3
    SurveyUSA | 10/29-31 Bush +2
    Strategic Vision (R) | 10/29-31 Bush +2
    CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-31 Kerry +4
    Ohio Poll/UofC | 10/27-31 Bush +0.9
    Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 Bush +2
    Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31 Bush +4
    Clev. Plain Dealer | 10/26-28 Bush +3
    Strategic Vision (R) | 10/25-27 Bush +1
    Columbus Dispatch* | 10/20-29 TIE
    Survey USA| 10/23-10/25 Kerry +3
    ARG | 10/23-10/25 Kerry +2
    LA Times | 10/22-10/26 Kerry +6
    Strategic Vision (R) | 10/22-24 Bush +2
    Rasmussen | 10/20-10/26 Bush +4
    Scripps | 10/17-10/21 Kerry +4
    Gallup | 10/17-10/20 Kerry +1

    But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

    by thezzyzx on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 09:14:01 AM PDT

    •  The last few (0+ / 0-)

      Are clearing trending Bush though. Kerry only led one poll after the 25th of October, and even his +3 before that in SUSA had flipped a week later.

      Obviously we'd be worried if we saw a big swing to Ohio polls going Romney's away. But we haven't... and we won't

    •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fou

      There were a few late 2008 Ohio polls that had McCain in the lead and prior to the Lehman crash, Mccain was winning Ohio (I'm looking at the same source that you're looking at.)

    •  Early voters are 40% of some surveys? (0+ / 0-)

      One argument attempting to explain why one should expect systemic error in Ohio is that the polls are "oversampling" Ohio’s Democratic-leaning early voters, who have constituted as much as 40 percent of recent surveys, even though Michael McDonald’s invaluable US Elections Project’s Early Voting page shows that just 985,000 of Ohio’s voters have cast ballots—or about 18 percent of the 2008 electorate.

      •  This doesn't make sense. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ranger995, wwjjd
        One argument attempting to explain why one should expect systemic error in Ohio is that the polls are "oversampling" Ohio’s Democratic-leaning early voters, who have constituted as much as 40 percent of recent surveys, even though Michael McDonald’s invaluable US Elections Project’s Early Voting page shows that just 985,000 of Ohio’s voters have cast ballots—or about 18 percent of the 2008 electorate.
        I don't understand why one data point by Michael McDonald trumps the consensus of surveys.  And I don't know who Michael McDonald is or why we should care who he is.

        Look.  If you're going to make an argument that Ronald McDonald's data demonstrates a systematic polling bias in other surveys, you should really cite some data in support of your claim.  Otherwise, your argument falls flat.

        Have you googled Romney today?

        by fou on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 09:32:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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