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View Diary: NSA Analyst Proves GOP Is Stealing Elections (43 comments)

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  •  the data are fascinating (1+ / 0-)
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    I'm no CT, so just playing with the datasheet provided for the fun of it.  and no verification it's real data, nor is a control dataset provided (some unrelated precinct data, obviously).

    but it's easy to reproduce the plot in Excel, and the trendlines seem bizarre, as (very) poorly described in the article: Romney % up, everybody else % down... apparently as a function of #votes cast in the precinct. for essentially every precinct!

    can some voting-guru explain whether or not this is normal behavior? i'm willing to accept that it is.

    but the hypothesis seems to be (a) that %'s should be stable and independent of #votes cast and (b) if not, that there is some function:
          votes reported = true votes + f(total#votes)

    turns out you can reasonably fit the data, so that they are consistent with hypotheses (a) and (b) if the 'precinct vote reporting function' is:
           votes reported = true votes + (1*10-6)*(#votes^2)

    (i started from the midpoint, throwing out the noisy low-#votes precincts).

    is this the secret 'Republican Voting Function' (RVF) :-)

    bizarre. but fun.

    "Many thousands of Americans and Iraqis have died in the campaign to defeat Gog and Magog."

    by chidmf on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 05:17:00 PM PDT

    •  not for every precinct (0+ / 0-)

      Look at a scatterplot. There is tons o' noise. This is just an unfamiliar way of looking at two modestly correlated variables.

      Without (1) a strong reason to expect zero correlation in an "honest" election (which makes no sense: why should precincts with few votes be politically indistinguishable from precincts with many votes?) and (2) a plausible causal theory to explain the observed relationship (fraud affecting most of the size distribution in 49 different states... how exactly? why exactly?!), we're nowhere.

      Election protection: there's an app for that! -- and a toll-free hotline: 866-OUR-VOTE
      Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

      by HudsonValleyMark on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 06:08:35 AM PDT

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