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View Diary: Bloomberg Turns Down Offer of FEMA Assistance for NYC (270 comments)

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  •  In other words, ... (2+ / 0-)
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    mmacdDE, divineorder

    a LOT of money will be wasted if storm damage doesn't materialize.  NYC already has systems in place to deal with emergency situations, and the threat of this one has already been substantially downgraded.  Throwing more money at it based upon mere speculation at this point isn't financially prudent ... especially at a time when such funds aren't on hand and would have to be borrowed.  "If"s and "might"s don't equate to actual need, especially when we're talking about spending millions of dollars "just in case".

    "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the universe." -- Albert Einstein

    by Neuroptimalian on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:21:10 PM PDT

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    •  The point of emergency preparedness is (19+ / 0-)

      preparedness. You say the threat has been substantially downgraded but offer no backup to that. While the hurricane itself is forecast to weaken, it's about to merge with a jet stream and a nor’easter, hence "the perfect storm" moniker. This is going to happen

      Here is the current most likely scenario

      SCENARIO 1: Near-direct hit - Landfall from northern Delmarva to northern New Jersey (70 percent chance, very bad case)

      GFS model shows storm making landfall Monday night in central New Jersey with torrential rain and strong winds (note tightly packed isobars) over the northern mid-AtlanticIn this scenario, the storm comes ashore just north of Washington, D.C.’s latitude, above the Maryland, Delaware beaches. Because the worst effects of the storm will probably be north and northeast of the center, much of the region would have somewhat weaker winds in this scenario and the beaches less coastal flooding. (This is potentially the worst case scenario for the New York City area, positioning it in the most intense northeast section of the storm, with a punishing flow off the ocean for up to two days. This could result in a devastating storm surge in the range of 5-10 feet, possibly flooding their subway system among other things).

      To not adequately prepare for this is madness. What you call "mere speculation" is based in science. What you say is "not financially prudent" seems to me to be responsible and necessary given the circumstances.

      What is your source for saying this threat has been substantially downgraded? Link please.

      48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam "Compassion is the radicalism of our time." ~ Tenzin Gyatso, 14th Dalai Lama -7.88, -6.21

      by Siri on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 07:52:17 PM PDT

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      •  Rain is predicted to be less than Irene (5+ / 0-)

        AND it's colder, so it's likely the storm winds will be less. Less wind, less storm surge.

        It's tracking further north every time I look at it (and I look at it a lot).

        There's going to be a lot of rain, BUT we've had a dry summer so the ground isn't nearly as saturated as it was with Irene AND the rivers/streams aren't high.

        Rain we can deal with. Some wind we can deal with.

        The weather channel is going to keep hyping this, because that's what they do. And it WILL depend a lot on where it turns, IF it turns, and how diffuse the storm is.

        The bigger it is, the less formed it is, the less the wind is and the less storm surge that will mean.

        We'll see how things look tomorrow. But I don't think and never DID think, that it would be the 'storm of the century' they were hyping.

        •  I don't like to bicker in diaries (4+ / 0-)

          but I really think this is important enough to counter the information you are posting so that anyone reading this won't be lulled into a false sense of security. If you have sources to support the meteorological conclusions you have made in your comment please link them.

          From Dr. Jeff Master blog:

          Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6.

          Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFS model, and predicts that the peak storm surge from Sandy will reach 5.5' on Monday night October 29, which is 1.4' higher than Irene's storm surge. This forecast has the peak surge occurring near high tide, bringing the maximum storm tide--the water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--to 10.5', a foot higher than Irene. At this level, water will very likely pour into the Lower Manhattan subway system, unless efforts to sandbag the entrances are successful. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy.

          You make note of the fact that the storm is tracking north. This is not counter to anything that's been forecast. You are correct that Sandy is projected to have less rain than Irene, about 20% less. But that's still enough rain to cause some serious trouble. If you are in the path of this, please take appropriate precautions. If you're right you can feel free to tell me you told me so for as long as it suits you. In the end you'll just have some extra emergency supplies. I really hope people take this storm seriously.

          48forEastAfrica - Donate to Oxfam "Compassion is the radicalism of our time." ~ Tenzin Gyatso, 14th Dalai Lama -7.88, -6.21

          by Siri on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 10:00:01 PM PDT

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        •  Thanks for the dose of (I hope) reality. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Paper Cup, divineorder

          The GOP: "You can always go to the Emergency Room."

          by Upper West on Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 10:01:25 PM PDT

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          •  Update: this morning's NOAA model run... (0+ / 0-)

            ... predicts a storm surge at the Battery about equal to that of Irene's (storm + tide = 9.5 feet). http://www.nws.noaa.gov/...

            Of course, we'd be fools to depend on this absolutely, but no point in pancking, either,  (unless you enjoy a good panic which, against all reason, overwhelming evidence shows that some people do.)

            Worse case scenario would be for massive flooding in our not-very-waterproof electrical infrastructure in lower Manhattan, but that's looking increasingly unlikely.

    •  Yeah, wasted (0+ / 0-)

      Just like all that money is wasted on seat belts for all the cars that don't crash.  Since we know with certainty which cars are going to crash, why don't we just install seat belts in those cars?

      "And the President of the United States - would be seated right here. I would be here. And he would be here. I would turn - and there he’d be. I could pet ‘im." - Lewis Black

      by libdevil on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 01:29:35 AM PDT

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      •  Do seat belts cost you tens of millions of $$ ... (0+ / 0-)

        and protect you only once?

        "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I am not sure about the universe." -- Albert Einstein

        by Neuroptimalian on Sun Oct 28, 2012 at 03:52:10 AM PDT

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