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View Diary: Mothership 2 Hurricane Sandy Diary (109 comments)

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  •  Please, please don't do this (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mamamedusa, Castalia

    Don't become an amateur hurricane forecaster.  I've followed Dr. Masters' blog long enough to know the following:

    The NHC track is always the most accurate
    .  If you trust in the NHC track, you'll get it right far more often than trusting any particular model or random gut feeling.

    Yes, there is only a 2/3rds chance that the storm falls within the cone (by design).  But by now the cone has gotten quite narrow.  This storm is hitting Jersey or somewhere close, going one state inland, and then north.  

    Looking at every little wobble or deviation is just going to lead you astray.  Hurricanes bounce around; it's what they do.  But ultimately, it's going to go where the steering points it.  That steering is complicated, however, and it takes the use of lots of data, models, and expertise to figure out.

    •  Per The Weather Channel (0+ / 0-)

      1000 people already without power in NORTH CAROLINA! Just saw the latest pictures and track about 20 minutes ago. Put simply, Sandy is an unholy beast, and (as was stated above) predicting it is not going to be easy. She may be making the westward turn everyone expects, or it may be a wobble and she's gonna keep coming north. If you're still in Zone A and you blew off the evacuation order, your life may be even more difficult.

      One more thing: One of the talking heads said residents in a few states may not have power all the way up to Election Day. Why do I have no problems visualizing Mittens sitting in front of a flatscreen TV, slamming can after can of caffeine-free Diet Coke and chanting, "GO, GO, GO"?

      "If you're going to go down with the ship, make it a submarine." - Wayne Shorter

      by Oliver Tiger on Mon Oct 29, 2012 at 04:09:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No (0+ / 0-)
        Put simply, Sandy is an unholy beast, and (as was stated above) predicting it is not going to be easy. She may be making the westward turn everyone expects, or it may be a wobble and she's gonna keep coming north.
        No, no, no.

        First off, the bigger the storm, the easier it gets to forecast.  It's the small, poorly developed things that are tough.

        Secondly, the NHC "knows what it doesn't know".  That's why it's a cone, not a straight line.  The error margin is already built in.

        Third, the "Hey, it looks to my eye like it's..." standard is totally BS, because, as stated, hurricanes wobble.  And this problem is worsened by selection bias because if the storm does end up striking slightly north of center, you'll tend to reinforce your "Aha, I was right, they don't know what they're talking about!" notions, while if it doesn't, you'll tend to forget about your mistake.

        To reiterate, the reality: It's a very tight cone.  It's aimed at south/central New Jersey.  It's coming ashore there or somewhere very close.

        •  And I should add... (0+ / 0-)

          A New Jersey hit will be very bad for New York.  The worst part of a hurricane, both in terms of wind and storm surge, is the northeast quadrant.  The winds there will be blowing all that water onto shore.

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