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View Diary: PPP FL: 049 - R48 (115 comments)

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  •  Not too far off (3+ / 0-)
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    merrywidow, Clyde the Cat, pademocrat

    The consensus of all the national polls has this as a very tight race.  That's true, nationally.

    But Obama has significant and steady leads in the states that matter for an electoral college win.  If he's underperforming in the other 42 states, it doesn't really matter, but it does tighten the national numbers.

    Also, consider that the national polling is almost all based on a likely voter screen that tends to underestimate Obama's numbers.  So the reality is he likely has a 1-2 point popular vote lead and a sizable electoral college lead right now.

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